Why Mirri’s Prophecy is a Prophecy

“When will he be as he was?” Dany demanded.

“When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east,” said Mirri Maz Duur. “When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. When your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child. Then he will return, and not before.” (AGOT Daenerys IX)

Here is a list of all of the characteristics that indicate to me that this quote is a prophecy beyond all doubt.

  1. It seems to predict/foreshadow future events. – From an in-story perspective a prediction may be wrong because predictions are made by characters and characters may be wrong. From a meta perspective all foreshadowing must be imbued with consequence. IE: If the Red Wedding never happened then all the things we call RW foreshadowing would no longer be accurate or coherent to call RW foreshadowing. It doesn’t become foreshadowing until the event it foreshadows actually happens. The fact that Mirri’s words seem to predict something suggests that those things will happen. Critics will respond that that is circular reasoning, but it isn’t and here is proof. Critics recognize that Mirri’s words seem to predict something. It is the fact that those predictions seem impossible that the critics believe Mirri is simply saying never. If critics didn’t recognize that Mirri’s words seem to predict something then they would not have been able to formulate the opinion that Mirri is saying never.

  2. The events are presented in coded imagery. – It isn’t clear whether the elements like “sun” refer to a literal or a metaphorical sun. Elements and events of the prophecy already exist in the story that seem to fit the prophecy as possible solutions and red herrings. (Quentyn, The Mountain, Rebirth, Womb of the world, Dothraki Sea, Mother of Mountains) The claim that Mirri’s statements are not a prophecy cannot exist without the claim that all metaphorical and alternative interpretations we find are the result of cognitive bias, coincidence, or that the author is intending to subvert the trope that all prophecies come true (See 8).

  3. The events it predicts seem to be impossible and/or incoherent. – The sun normally rises in the east. Mountains are too big to blow in the wind. Khal Drogo is dead.

  4. The character/s engage with the prophecy like a mystery. – Dany thinks about Mirri’s prophecy in every book she appears in from Game to Dance. She tries to figure out what it means, which prompts the reader to try to figure out what it means.

    He shall be the stallion that mounts the world. Dany knew how it went with prophecies. They were made of words, and words were wind. There would be no son for Loraq, no heir to unite dragon and harpy. When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east, when the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. Only then would her womb quicken once again … (ADWD Daenerys IV)

  5. The character/s misinterpret the prophecy. – Dany thinks the womb part of the prophecy means she can never have a human baby. Because of the combination of 1 and 8, the prophecy means she will absolutely have a human baby before the story ends. Another way Dany misinterprets the prophecy is that she thinks that the infertility part is the ultimate prediction. It’s actually a prerequisite for the Khal Drogo part, which is the ultimate prediction.

    “Then he will return, and not before.”

  6. The prophecy has elements of self-fulfillment. – Due to Dany’s own misinterpretation of the prophecy, it is prematurely consequential to her in harmful ways. Her belief that she can’t bear human children weighs in her decision to pursue conquest rather than family. Because she believes she can’t have human children, she thinks of her dragons as children and that is at the heart of an unhealthy pathology. The reason prophecies in fantasy are self-fulfilling is because 8 introduces a problem with fate/determinism. If fate exists then the character’s actions never mattered. The solution to that problem is to direct fate back into the hands of the character by having the character’s actions cause the prophecy to come true. It creates a chicken and egg situation that is impervious to fate/determinism criticism.

  7. The prophecy comes in three parts. – Three is the magic number throughout history and literature. Genies grant three wishes, Cerberus has three heads, jokes have three parts and so on. The reason is that three is the smallest number in which a pattern can exist. (ABA, 121) Humans are pattern seekers.

  8. Dreams and visions never lie. Prophecies are derived from dreams and visions. Therefore prophecies never lie. Therefore prophecies always come true in some interpretation. – Any degree of research into prophecy in fantasy turns up the trope that prophecies always come true, just not in the way you expect. 1 2 Philip K. Dick is a perfect example why the trope exists. It’s a guideline for good writing. Nobody wants to read a prophecy that fails to come true, or rather, foreshadowing that fails to be imbued with consequence. The reason dreams and visions never lie is because it’s a manifestation of nature. To lie requires one to have an agenda. Nature doesn’t have an agenda. It just exists. You can’t argue with it. That’s why we call it nature.

Spooky Noises

At the top of the Great Pyramid in Meereen, Missandei says she heard somebody scratching at the walls at night.

A cool wind was blowing on her terrace. Dany sighed with pleasure as she slipped into the waters of her pool. At her command, Missandei stripped off her clothes and climbed in after her. “This one heard the Astapori scratching at the walls last night,” the little scribe said as she was washing Dany’s back.

Irri and Jhiqui exchanged a look. “No one was scratching,” said Jhiqui. “Scratching … how could they scratch?”

“With their hands,” said Missandei. “The bricks are old and crumbling. They are trying to claw their way into the city.”

“This would take them many years,” said Irri. “The walls are very thick. This is known.”

“It is known,” agreed Jhiqui.

“I dream of them as well.” Dany took Missandei’s hand. “The camp is a good half-mile from the city, my sweetling. No one was scratching at the walls.”

“Your Grace knows best,” said Missandei. “Shall I wash your hair? It is almost time. Reznak mo Reznak and the Green Grace are coming to discuss—”

“—the wedding preparations.” Dany sat up with a splash. “I had almost forgotten.” (ADWD Daenerys VI)

Dany and the Dothraki are dismissive of it. Dany suggests that Missandei was just having a bad dream, and points out that the Astapori are too far away to scratch at the walls. Keep in mind that Missandei is ten years old.

Supposing that the scratching that Missandei heard wasn’t a dream, what do you think it was?

For context, this scene happens at the end of a long day that Dany and her followers have spent burning bodies of freedmen who were infected by pale mare.

I think the scratching alludes to the hidden passages beneath the Red Keep. Maybe a similar network of tunnels exists in the pyramid and Dany is being spied upon, up in her apartments.

It was the dragons!

I don’t think so. My issues with the dragon explanation are (1) the sound would have to be very loud in order to travel from the bottom to the top of the pyramid. And if it’s that loud then other people in the pyramid should have heard it too. (2) If the scratching is from the dragons then the narrative purpose of the scratching must be to foreshadow something consequential like if the dragons dig their way out of the pyramid. But since the dragons escaped another way then the foreshadowing isn’t foreshadowing because it was inconsequential.

Missandei thinks the scratching noise is the sound of the sick and dying Astapori who Dany has tragically been forced to forsake.

“We must close the gates and put every fighting man upon the walls. No one enters, no one leaves.”

The hall was quiet for a moment. The men looked at one another. Then Reznak said, “What of the Astapori?”

She wanted to scream, to gnash her teeth and tear her clothes and beat upon the floor. Instead she said, “Close the gates. Will you make me say it thrice?” They were her children, but she could not help them now. (ADWD Daenerys VI)

So this ten-year-old scribe seems to me to be filling in the gaps in her knowledge with her subconscious fears. Those fears are perhaps along the lines of: The scary looking sick-and-starving people outside the city are going to claw through the city walls, perhaps upset about being forsaken by their beloved queen, and attack us in the dark while we sleep at night.

Skeletal women sat upon the ground clutching dying infants. Their eyes followed her. Those who had the strength called out. “Mother … please, Mother … bless you, Mother …”

As Dany and the Dothraki pointed out, the Astapori are too far from the Great Pyramid in order for any sounds from the Astapori to reach the royal apartments.

Two chapters later, Missandei comes to Dany again with another report of a creepy noise, which Dany dismisses again as a dream.

“My queen?” said a soft voice in the darkness.

Dany flinched. “Who is there?”

“Only Missandei.” The Naathi scribe moved closer to the bed. “This one heard you crying.”

“Crying? I was not crying. Why would I cry? I have my peace, I have my king, I have everything a queen might wish for. You had a bad dream, that was all.”

“As you say, Your Grace.” She bowed and made to go. (ADWD Daenerys VIII)

So now we have two strange noises in the night, scratching and then crying. Assuming that the two noises came from the same source, which doesn’t feel like too risky an assumption considering that this is a story, then I feel comfortable ruling out the dragons as the source of the sounds.

Essential Identity

Another way of saying “All Prophecies Come True” is “Prophecies Never Lie.”

I think people appear in visions and prophecies as their original, essential identity.

Examples:

Varys appears in Quaithe’s prophecy as a mummer rather than a spider.

Littlefinger appears in Bran’s and Ghost of High Heart’s prophecies as a giant rather than a mockingbird.

Aegon appears in a prophecy as a dragon.

Gendry appears in Melisandre’s Girl in Grey prophecy as a deer AKA the stag of House Baratheon.

The suggestion seems to be that prophecies and visions, or the gods who send them, can see through false identities and into true identities. The true identity manifests in the vision. Disguises may fool other people, but they don’t fool the gods.

Melisandre’s Girl in Grey

Video version (a year or so less old): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UnWNguTYFM

Everything after this paragraph is quite old and I would like to update it some day into a better presentation. It’s okay as it is but I have learned a lot since I wrote it and I think it can be presented much better. Anyway this is the first unsolved mystery I really dug my teeth into and so a lot of what I’ve learned was learned while researching this essay. I believe this essay describes the correct solution to Melisandre’s Girl in Grey prophecy beyond a shadow of a doubt!

For the bulk of this essay I’m going to visit every character that I have ever heard proposed as the solution to the girl in grey prophecy while sharing my personal thoughts, interpretations, and methodology. I have read and listened to many theories, essays, and podcasts to be able to combine my research and ideas with those of other people. I’ll try to credit as many of those people and theories as I can at the end.

I use the words vision and prophecy interchangeably because a vision is one of many mediums for a prophecy.

A vision or prophecy can have many parts to it, but it is all one connected thing. For example, with Cersei’s Valonqar prophecy we don’t separate “gold will be their shrouds” from “you will wed the king.” They come together as parts of the same prophecy. All parts of a prophecy must come true in order for us to call the prophecy satisfied. If ever a single part doesn’t come true, we can say with absolute certainty that the whole conclusion is either incorrect or incomplete. In fact, we must – no matter how painful it may be – otherwise we will not find the answer.

There’s a cool theme in the story that magic is as treacherous as a sword without a hilt. Despite this theme, (really the source of it) it isn’t acceptable if a prophecy doesn’t have a solution. Neither is it acceptable if that solution is unsatisfying. The reader should not have to make stretches, allowances, and leaps in logic in order to make the prophecy fit the solution. These rules for prophecies aren’t my own invention, however I won’t ask you to take my word for it. I think the books do a great job demonstrating how prophecy works and I hope I’m able to help bring that out. And to find the girl in grey, of course.

The Telling

To begin, we must gather and build a list of criteria for the girl in grey as defined by the vision. The first time we hear about the vision of the girl in grey is when Melisandre speaks to Jon beneath the shadow of the Wall.

“I have seen your sister in my fires, fleeing from this marriage they have made for her. Coming here, to you. A girl in grey on a dying horse, I have seen it plain as day. It has not happened yet, but it will.” (ADWD Jon VI)

This is our first heads-up from the author. He’s telling us through Melisandre that this is the beginning of a puzzle and reassuring us that we will be able to solve it. He will make sure every part of the prophecy is carefully hidden and satisfying to find. He’s inviting us to play the puzzle. “It has not happened yet, but it will.”

The next time we hear about the vision of the girl in grey, Melisandre is in her private room preparing to look into her fire. She thinks

Many a priest and priestess before her had been brought down by false visions, by seeing what they wished to see instead of what the Lord of Light had sent. (ADWD Melisandre I)

Then we get some new pieces of the vision.

The girl. I must find the girl again, the grey girl on the dying horse. Jon Snow would expect that of her, and soon. It would not be enough to say the girl was fleeing. He would want more, he would want the when and where, and she did not have that for him. She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away. (ADWD Melisandre I)

When new parts of the prophecy are introduced, we have to check them for conflicts against the original telling. The horse and fleeing are new pieces that don’t conflict with what we already know about the vision, so we can add them to the list of criteria.

With these passages we see that Melisandre is in bad form. She doesn’t know for certain that the girl in grey is Arya Stark because she calls her “the girl” rather than Arya Stark. Rather than communicating her visions as they appear, she is molding them into something Jon wanted to hear. This gives us insight into her mistakes, guides us away from trusting Melisandre’s interpretations and from making the same mistakes.

The next piece of the vision we get is small but we can’t leave anything out.

“The girl,” she said. “A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow’s sister.” Who else could it be? She was racing to him for protection, that much Melisandre had seen clearly. (ADWD Melisandre I)

Whoever this girl is, she is racing to Jon Snow for protection. Due to Melisandre’s Arya-bias and her apparent line of reasoning here, (Who else could it be?) I’m going to assume “sister” is not part of the vision itself but rather part of her interpretation. And we do not trust her interpretation. Here is our list of criteria so far.

  • Racing to Jon Snow for protection
  • A girl in grey, grey as ash
  • On a dying horse
  • Fleeing from a marriage they have made for her
  • Even as I watched she crumbled and blew away

A common occurrence with prophecies in the books is that they are interpreted incorrectly, especially when the interpreter is being hasty with the interpretation. So we should be wary of hasty interpretations.

Did your fires show you where to find this girl?”

“I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever.”

“Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?”

“Hills. Fields. Trees. A deer, once. Stones. She is staying well away from villages. When she can she rides along the bed of little streams, to throw hunters off her trail.”

He frowned. “That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her east or to her west?”

Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. “West.”

“She is not coming up the kingsroad, then. Clever girl. There are fewer watchers on the other side, and more cover. And some hidey-holes I have used myself from time—” He broke off at the sound of a warhorn and rose swiftly to his feet. (ADWD Melisandre I)

That seems like a hasty interpretation. I don’t doubt Mance’s knowledge of the geography. Still, the only certainty any reasonable person can draw from Melisandre’s description is that the body of water is some lake. It can’t be an ocean because it is still and freezing.

Melisandre sees a freezing body of water to the west of the girl, placing her on the eastern shore. West is not a context sensitive direction like left or right. No matter if the girl is traveling north or south, the water is west of her.

There is some debate about how Melisandre could possibly know which direction the girl is traveling. This isn’t a problem for three reasons. (1) The vision could have a source of light and the position of the sun would give away the direction. (2) Visions and dreams are impressionistic. In a dream, it isn’t about what you see but what you feel. I may not see what is chasing me, but I feel a sense of knowing that something is chasing me. This dream feeling is supported in the text.

They thought they were hunting her, she knew with all the strange sharp certainty of dreams, but they were wrong. (ASOS Arya I)

Maybe the vision feels northward bound.

(3) Either way, “north” is a re-telling of the vision that could conflict with the original telling. We have to leave it out. The original telling is “Coming here, to you.” The girl in grey will be traveling whichever direction she needs to in order to reach Jon at Castle Black. North, south, east, west, up, down, or anything inbetween.

Let’s update the list.

  • Water deep blue still. Thin coat of ice just forming on it. Seemed to go on forever. West of the girl.
  • There are hills fields trees stones streams villages. A deer once. Staying away from villages.
  • Racing to Jon Snow for protection
  • A girl in grey, grey as ash
  • On a dying horse
  • Fleeing from a marriage they have made for her
  • Even as I watched she crumbled and blew away

If a prophecy is well written, we will not be able to solve it by taking all of its meanings at face value. Just like a riddle, its use of language is often designed to play against our expectations of language. For example, when we read “Racing to Jon Snow for protection” we naturally think of all the girls in need of Jon Snow’s protection. However, if we suppose that Jon Snow is the one in need of protection, now we’re in the right frame of mind for solving prophecy – even if that line of thinking leads us to a dead end.

When playing a game of prophecy, a common trap that characters and readers fall into is that we change the prophecy over time. The characters will communicate the prophecy back and forth, making assumptions, additions and subtractions until the reader begins to do it too. Bits like “just forming on it” are forgotten based on a sensible conclusion or for the sake of brevity. Pieces that seem irrelevant like “even as I watched” and “they have made for her” and “once” are easy to dismiss, but those minor details are vital in finding the solution. We and the characters have a tendency to warp the original wording of the prophecy. Gods and authors alike delight to use that against us. So it’s extremely important that we protect the wording of the original telling from beginning to end of the game.

Due to this tendency, we should always trust the original telling of the vision more than re-tellings. Melisandre says that she has only seen the girl in grey once, and that line might be a clue that we should prioritize the original telling.

Another important thing to remember is the prophecy can only come from the prophet. In this case Melisandre. We won’t worry about whether or not the girl in grey is staying away from the King’s Road because that comment came from Mance Rayder. The King’s Road isn’t part of the prophecy.

Above is our checklist for finding the identity of the girl in grey. Everything we need is listed there. Without further ado, let’s dig into the details of every potential girl in grey.

The Search

[[ When we find the solution to a prophecy, we should feel as though we have just reached the end of a scavenger hunt or found the solution to a riddle that we have been pondering for days or years. There should be a feeling of revelation or accomplishment and I try to be uncompromising with that expectation. ]]

Alys Karstark

Alys Karstark is the first person to almost satisfy the prophecy. Here is her arrival at Castle Black.

“Ty and Dannel came on her two leagues south of Mole’s Town. They were chasing down some wildlings who scampered off down the kingsroad. Brought them back as well, but then they come on the girl. She’s highborn, m’lord, and she’s been asking for you.”

“How many with her?” He moved to his basin, splashed water on his face. Gods, but he was tired.

“None, m’lord. She come alone. Her horse was dying under her. All skin and ribs it was, lame and lathered. They cut it loose and took the girl for questioning.”

A grey girl on a dying horse. Melisandre’s fires had not lied, it would seem. But what had become of Mance Rayder and his spearwives? “Where is the girl now?”

“Maester Aemon’s chambers, m’lord.” The men of Castle Black still called it that, though by now the old maester should be warm and safe in Oldtown. “Girl was blue from the cold, shivering like all get out, so Ty wanted Clydas to have a look at her.” (ADWD Jon IX)

The way Jon thinks that the prophecy is fulfilled seems to me like a hasty interpretation. Much like Melisandre and Mance Rayder, Jon is jumping to a conclusion.

After Alys Karstark arrives at Castle Black, both Jon and Melisandre consider the vision satisfied.

“Daggers in the dark. I know. You will forgive my doubts, my lady. A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from a marriage, that was what you said.”

“I was not wrong.”

“You were not right. Alys is not Arya.”

“The vision was a true one. It was my reading that was false. I am as mortal as you, Jon Snow. All mortals err.” (ADWD Jon X)

[[ Both Jon and Melisandre have already warped the words of the prophecy by referring to her as the grey girl. The original wording is the girl in grey. It’s a natural thing to do and I was doing it myself for a long time. We have to be diligent and check ourselves constantly on the wording of the prophecy.

As of ADWD and TWOW sample chapters, all of the candidates for the girl in grey are missing parts of the prophecy. I think we can expect that to be the case until the series is entirely finished. Martin plays his cards close to the chest when it comes to mysteries. Though Melisandre has her vision in the 5th book, this puzzle is a tapestry that weaves into threads from every book before it and likely every book to come after it. ]]

Alys Karstark is a girl who was riding a dying horse and fleeing from a marriage to her cousin Cregan Karstark. She does ask Jon for protection. The path from Karhold to Castle Black could place a body of still water, Long Lake, to her west. I don’t know much about deer in the winter, but I don’t see any reason why there wouldn’t be trees, streams, stones, villages and so on. Alys almost fits the vision, but she isn’t grey as ash. She’s specifically described as blue here. Her hair is brown, her eyes are blue-grey, and her clothes are black. The Karstark arms aren’t grey but a white sunburst on black. Alys hasn’t crumbled and blown away. That doesn’t mean she couldn’t in the future, but let’s keep searching. Alys is 5/7 for the vision and therefore either incorrect or incomplete.

[[ We gave Alys Karstark credit for the water part of the prophecy because her likely route could have placed Long Lake to her west. We don’t actually know that it did. This is what I call an allowance. However, we made many more allowances than just that. Long Lake’s depth, blueness, and stillness are missing textual support. We gave Alys credit for the “deer once” because it’s logical that she might have encountered a deer once, but we don’t know for sure that she actually has. She may have encountered several deer or none. The solution to a prophecy will never force us to make these allowances. ]]

Jeyne Poole

Alys is thought by many to be a red herring. Jeyne Poole makes sense in many ways. Melisandre mistakes the girl in grey for Arya Stark, and this may be a clue of Jeyne Poole because Jeyne is currently at Winterfell pretending to be Arya Stark. If we follow this clue, it connects Jeyne to the color grey because Theon notes often that Jeyne’s eyes are the wrong color to be Arya Stark. Jeyne’s eyes are brown and Arya’s eyes are grey.

Jeyne, her name is Jeyne, and her eyes are the wrong color. (ADWD Theon I)

The connections between Jeyne Poole and the color grey don’t stop there. Her clothes are the grey roughspun that were given to her by Squirrel, meant to disguise Jeyne as a washerwoman in order to escape Winterfell.

[[ Let’s take a moment to talk about the journey of sleuthing that has led us to where we are now. In order to consider Jeyne as the girl in grey, the reader has first had to consider and discard Alys Karstark even when she was a 5/7 match. Some pieces of the puzzle fell into place easily for Jeyne Poole, such as fleeing from a marriage, but the color of her clothes are much harder to find. Clothes can change and we want to know the color of Jeyne’s clothes at the time and place of the vision, so the search begins in [ADWD 54 Theon I] when they make their escape from Winterfell. We reread the chapter and get to the part with Jeyne to find her wearing wolf skins. Wolves can be grey but no color is mentioned. As the scene unfolds, Jeyne and the wildling Squirrel strip and swap clothes, but still no color is mentioned. Now we must find the color of Squirrel’s clothes. Unless our memories are sharp, we will have to comb the chapter again to find the spot several pages earlier that mentions nonchalantly that all the wilding spearwives, including Squirrel, are wearing grey roughspun.

When Squirrel returned, the other four were with her: gaunt grey-haired Myrtle, Willow Witch-Eye with her long black braid, Frenya of the thick waist and enormous breasts, Holly with her knife. Clad as serving girls in layers of drab grey roughspun, they wore brown woolen cloaks lined with white rabbit fur. (ADWD Theon I)

Phew! That shows us the extent to which the author is willing to go in order to hide clues to his prophecies. The care with which the clue was hidden could strongly indicate that we’re on the right track. However, the clothes are not only grey. They are also brown and white. While it is tempting to settle with a near match, we have to resist the urge. ]]

Additionally, the husband that Jeyne is fleeing from happens to own a hound named Grey Jeyne. There is a little bit of grey on the arms of House Poole but not enough to matter, in my opinion. House Poole’s arms are a blue plate on white with a grey tressure.

Jeyne [Spoilers TWOW] matches the “crumbled and blew away” part of the vision because the tip of her nose has gone black with frostbite. Her escort thinks that she will lose that part of her nose soon. It’s such a small part of her body that it doesn’t match the prophecy well enough for me, personally. What Melisandre described seems to imply something significant such as death or transformation, but I’ll digress. The frostbite works with the prophecy. Jeyne and Theon arrive at Stannis’s camp and Stannis sends Jeyne “Arya” Poole with an escort to Jon at Castle Black. We will have to wait and see if she arrives on a dying horse, but it seems likely considering the poor state of Stannis’s army. The wilderness hills fields trees deer stones streams and villages match well enough with the vision. It remains to be seen if the escort will avoid villages or if a freezing lake will be west of her. Jon plans to send Arya across the sea to keep her safe, which could come to match the “blew away” part of the prophecy. Jeyne is 5/7 for the vision and looking hopeful.

[[ Like before, Jeyne required us to make allowances and assumptions for certain parts of the prophecy, and that is a bad sign. We cannot say for certain that she actually did encounter hills, fields, trees, stones, streams, and a deer once unless they appear in the text. We don’t know for certain that she was avoiding villages because the text never told us that she was avoiding villages, even though it is entirely reasonable to assume that a runaway would avoid villages. From now on I won’t stop to point out allowances. They are identifiable by a lack of exact or synonymous verbiage used in the prophecy. ]]

Asha Greyjoy

Asha Greyjoy’s name fulfills one part of the vision itself. She’s a girl as Grey as Ash fleeing from her marriage to Erik Ironmaker. Asha wasn’t present for the wedding ceremony, but her uncle Euron was kind enough to substitute her with a seal.

Tris Botley said that the Crow’s Eye had used a seal to stand in for her at her wedding. “I hope Erik did not insist on a consummation,” she’d said. (ADWD The Wayward Bride)

[Spoilers TWOW] Asha is captured by Stannis and held captive at the crofter’s village, so it wouldn’t be fair to say she’s avoiding villages. It remains to be seen where Asha will go next. Maybe there is a dying horse, a Castle Black, and some crumbling in her future. The crofter’s village has two frozen lakes, but they aren’t west of Asha. Asha is actually on top of a lake, ice fishing.

Her hair is black and her eyes unknown. The Greyjoy sigil is a golden Kraken on black. Asha is 2/7 for the vision.

[[ The reason we check everyone’s sigil, hair, and eye color is because Martin loves to use heraldry to symbolize people. Lannisters are called lions, Starks are wolves, and the characters frequently refer to these affiliations as if they were talking about animals.

“You found a body?”

“We found parts of many bodies. The wolves were there before us . . . the four-legged sort, but they showed scant reverence for their two-legged kin. (AFFC The Kraken’s Daughter)

He has been known on occassion to use hair and eye color symbolically too. ]]

Shireen Baratheon

Shireen Baratheon’s greyscale makes her an interesting candidate. The greyscale side of her face matches her with the color grey. The afflicted flesh stiffens, calcifies, cracks and is described as mottled black and grey.

The child had her lord father’s square jut of jaw and her mother’s unfortunate ears, along with a disfigurement all her own, the legacy of the bout of greyscale that had almost claimed her in the crib. Across half one cheek and well down her neck, her flesh was stiff and dead, the skin cracked and flaking, mottled black and grey and stony to the touch. (ACOK Prologue)

If the stories of greyscale are true, we can see how she might crumble and blow away. However, the spread of her greyscale was stopped many years ago. She’s neither riding a dying horse nor fleeing from a marriage. Melisandre sees Shireen on a regular basis and should have recognized her in the vision. Even if her face is obscured, I would expect Melisandre to recognize Shireen’s size, shape, or profile. Since Shireen is at Castle Black, she isn’t riding along streams, through fields, avoiding villages, racing to Jon for protection, or any of the rest. Shireen is 1/7 for the vision.

Val

Val has been put forth as the girl in grey. Her eyes are grey, though admittedly they change color to blue. She wears various cloaks, one of which is a grey bearskin cloak. Another is white and another is brown salted with grey. Jon protects Val while she helps deliver Dalla’s baby, but Val is never “racing to Jon Snow for protection.” Stannis tries to arrange marriages for Val but she doesn’t flee from them. She agrees to marry a kneeler if Mance could live.

“Is it Mance? Val begged the king to spare him. She said she’d let some kneeler marry her and never slit his throat if only Mance could live. (ADWD Jon II)

Melisandre knows Val and should have recognized her in the vision. Jon sends Val north to bring peace terms to Tormund. Her horse is perfectly healthy except for a missing eye. The only water that Val would have passed are rivers not large enough to match the vision’s water that “seemed to go on forever.” The terrain could match but there aren’t many villages to avoid and we don’t know that she was avoiding them. She hasn’t crumbled and blown away yet. Val is 1/7 or 4/7 depending on how generous you want to be. There are a lot of half matches.

Lyanna Stark

Lyanna Stark is a creative idea because it sets the vision far in the past. Thoros is a red priest and Edric Dayne says that Thoros can see visions of the past, so it follows that Melisandre can see the past too. It matches on both a practical and thematic level with the way Melisandre mistakes the girl in grey for Arya because Arya is sometimes compared to Lyanna.

“Ah, Arya. You have a wildness in you, child. ‘The wolf blood,’ my father used to call it. Lyanna had a touch of it, (AGOT Arya II)

“You ride like a northman, milady,” Harwin said when he’d drawn them to a halt. “Your aunt was the same. Lady Lyanna. (ASOS Arya III)

The familial relationship could explain why Melisandre mistakes Jon’s mother for his sister. All of the Stark girls fit with the color grey because House Stark’s sigil is a running grey direwolf on an ice-white field. The body of water would be the God’s Eye, though I don’t know if it was west of her or not. The marriage she is fleeing from would be to Robert Baratheon. However, she can’t be racing to Jon Snow for protection because Jon wasn’t born yet.

When we consider God’s Eye as the body of water in the vision, we begin to notice that God’s Eye is an overwhelming match with the vision.

I saw water. Deep and blue and still. It seemed to go on and on forever. Hills. Fields. Trees. Stones.

To the east, Gods Eye was a sheet of sun-hammered blue that filled half the world. Some days, as they made their slow way up the muddy shore (Gendry wanted no part of any roads, and even Hot Pie and Lommy saw the sense in that), Arya felt as though the lake were calling her. She wanted to leap into those placid blue waters, to feel clean again, to swim and splash and bask in the sun. (ACOK Arya V)

Every day they marched, and every night she said her names, until finally the trees thinned and gave way to a patchwork landscape of rolling hills, meandering streams, and sunlit fields, where the husks of burnt holdfasts thrust up black as rotten teeth.(ACOK Arya VI)

God’s Eye’s water and surrounding landscape don’t require us to make assumptions or allowances. The author showed us the lake in detail using the same words of the prophecy or synonyms.

When she glimpsed the lake ahead between houses and trees, Arya put her knees into her horse, galloping past Woth and Gendry. She burst out onto the grassy sward beside the pebbled shore. The setting sun made the tranquil surface of the water shimmer like a sheet of beaten copper. It was the biggest lake she had ever seen, with no hint of a far shore. She saw a rambling inn to her left, built out over the water on heavy wooden pilings. To her right, a long pier jutted into the lake, and there were other docks farther east, wooden fingers reaching out from the town. But the only boat in view was an upside-down rowboat abandoned on the rocks beneath the inn, its bottom thoroughly rotted out. “They’re gone,” Arya said, dejected. What would they do now? (ACOK Arya IV)

Gendry suggested building a raft to cross God’s Eye and it’s described as deep.

Yoren looked thoughtful. “Lake’s too deep to pole across (ACOK 14 Arya IV)

There were dozens of mentions of stones and trees during Arya’s chapters near God’s Eye, but here are two. Arya climbed a tree and she buried a dead body using stones.

She watched from the tree for a long time (ACOK Arya V)

They buried him under a mound of stones (ACOK Arya V)

The descriptions of God’s Eye match so well with the vision that it serves as a great indication for those of us playing the game that we might be on the right track. So far, we haven’t had to find any tricky meaning in the words of the prophecy.

The Rules

We’ve come a long way, so let’s stop for a moment to talk about prophecy in fantasy. I sometimes call prophecy a game or a puzzle because that’s essentially its purpose for the reader. It’s a fun mystery that the author meant for us to try to solve. Martin calls them puzzles all the time. They are meant to enhance a great story for those of us who like to solve mysteries and predict the story, but participation shouldn’t be required in order to enjoy the books.

I think that’s the case with A Song of Ice and Fire. The books are perfectly enjoyable without taking part in these wild goose chases. When we embark on a wild goose chase, we enter into an implicit agreement with the author that if we invest ourselves into solving the mystery, it will be worth it. That’s his simple and singular promise to us.

Though the reader is motivated by a yearning to predict or find out what happens next, the value in prophecy as a literary device is not in predicting the ending. If the readers solve the puzzle too soon, we may ruin the ending for ourselves. Make no mistake, writers take a great risk when they play with prophecy. They’re giving away an ending in code and then betting on their own skill as a writer to conceal the clues well enough that the most observant readers won’t be able to solve it until the reveal is imminent. These stakes make the game interesting for both parties, especially since the advent of the internet.

The value of prophecy is in the satisfaction we feel when we find a clue. I don’t want to rob anybody of that satisfaction and it’s the reason I tried to structure this essay as an organic investigation rather than a bullet point list of solutions. If Martin cheats by outright lying to us, it will not feel satisfying and worth it. We will feel cheated. Martin will try everything in his power to mislead us, but resisting those misdirections is part of the game. So here are the rules of prophecy that the author must follow. (More like guidelines, really.)

  1. The prophecy must come true.
  2. Every clue must be available to the reader before the solution is revealed.
  3. The original telling of the prophecy cannot lie. The author can make it as obscure and confusing as he wants, but it must be completely true in some way. Additionally, the reader will not have to decipher what the original telling was. It will be made explicit at least once.

Without these rules, the puzzle wouldn’t be solvable to begin with and victory would never have been a possibility for the reader. That’s no puzzle at all.

The Mistake

Despite my attempts to resist misdirection, I made a big error at the beginning of this journey. Based on a sensible conclusion, I dropped a piece of the prophecy. Due to Melisandre’s apparent bias towards Arya, I subtracted something from the original telling. The funny thing about bias is that it doesn’t necessarily mean the person is wrong. Here’s the original telling again.

“I have seen your sister in my fires, fleeing from this marriage they have made for her. Coming here, to you. A girl in grey on a dying horse, I have seen it plain as day. It has not happened yet, but it will.” (ADWD Jon VI)

So let’s update the list of criteria and go from there.

  • Jon Snow’s sister.
  • Water deep blue still. Thin coat of ice just forming on it. Seemed to go on forever. West of the girl.
  • There are hills fields trees stones streams villages. A deer once. Staying away from villages.
  • Racing to Jon Snow for protection.
  • A girl in grey, grey as ash
  • On a dying horse
  • Fleeing from a marriage they have made for her
  • Even as I watched she crumbled and blew away

We had a lot of success with God’s Eye, so we should follow that lead. Most of the descriptions of God’s Eye happened in Arya’s chapters and Arya is Jon Snow’s sister, so let’s continue with Arya.

Arya Stark

Arya’s journey at God’s Eye took her up the eastern shore of the lake, so the lake was west of her and matches the vision.

Racing to Jon Snow for protection

While it’s true that Arya was nowhere near Jon Snow, she did think about him quite a lot. We might be able to make a case that Arya is “racing to Jon snow for protection.”

 . . . but it was Jon Snow she thought of most. She wished somehow they could come to the Wall before Winterfell, so Jon might muss up her hair and call her “little sister.” She’d tell him, “I missed you,” and he’d say it too at the very same moment, the way they always used to say things together. She would have liked that. She would have liked that better than anything. (ACOK Arya I)

Yoren was going back to the Wall and he promised to drop off Arya at Winterfell. She would rather go to the Wall first.

“When you ride back to the Wall, would you bring Jon a letter if I wrote one?” She wished Jon were here right now. He’d believe her about the dungeons and the fat man with the forked beard and the wizard in the steel cap. (AGOT Arya III)

The moment Arya sensed things beginning to go awry in King’s Landing, she looked to Jon for rescue.

Everything Syrio Forel had ever taught her vanished in a heartbeat. In that instant of sudden terror, the only lesson Arya could remember was the one Jon Snow had given her, the very first.

She stuck him with the pointy end, driving the blade upward with a wild, hysterical strength. (AGOT Arya IV)

When Arya was most afraid, Jon’s words protected her.

“NO!” Arya and Gendry both said, at the exact same instant. Hot Pie quailed a little. Arya gave Gendry a sideways look. He said it with me, like Jon used to do, back in Winterfell. She missed Jon Snow the most of all her brothers. (ASOS Arya I)

She thinks of Jon fondly and often.

When Arya met Edric Dayne, she considered going to the Wall to see Jon.

“He’s with the Night’s Watch on the Wall.” Maybe I should go to the Wall instead of Riverrun. Jon wouldn’t care who I killed or whether I brushed my hair . . . “Jon looks like me, even though he’s bastard-born. He used to muss my hair and call me ‘little sister.'” Arya missed Jon most of all. Just saying his name made her sad. “How do you know about Jon?” (ASOS Arya VIII)

When Arya was with Sandor Clegane, she suggested going to the Wall to meet Jon.

“I know where we could go,” Arya said. She still had one brother left. Jon will want me, even if no one else does. He’ll call me “little sister” and muss my hair. It was a long way, though, and she didn’t think she could get there by herself. She hadn’t even been able to reach Riverrun. “We could go to the Wall.” (ASOS Arya XII)

Before she set sail for Braavos, she tried to convince the captain to take her to the Wall to see Jon.

I want to go north, to the Wall. Here, I can pay.” She gave him the purse. “The Night’s Watch has a castle on the sea.” (ASOS Arya XIII)

Her home was gone, her parents dead, and all her brothers slain but Jon Snow on the Wall. That was where she had wanted to go. She told the captain as much, but even the iron coin did not sway him. (AFFC Arya I)

During her training at the House of Black and White, she tried to reject her real identity but she couldn’t. These are the reasons why.

Needle was too small to be a proper sword, it was hardly more than a toy. She’d been a stupid little girl when Jon had it made for her. “It’s just a sword,” she said, aloud this time . . .

. . . but it wasn’t.

Needle was Robb and Bran and Rickon, her mother and her father, even Sansa. Needle was Winterfell’s grey walls, and the laughter of its people. Needle was the summer snows, Old Nan’s stories, the heart tree with its red leaves and scary face, the warm earthy smell of the glass gardens, the sound of the north wind rattling the shutters of her room. Needle was Jon Snow’s smile. He used to mess my hair and call me “little sister,” she remembered, and suddenly there were tears in her eyes. (AFFC Arya II)

In Braavos, “Blind Beth” misses her brother.

But they were all dead now, even Arya, everyone but her half-brother, Jon. Some nights she heard talk of him, in the taverns and brothels of the Ragman’s Harbor. The Black Bastard of the Wall, one man had called him. Even Jon would never know Blind Beth, I bet. That made her sad.

Most of all, we’re reminded frequently that Jon used to mess her hair and call her “little sister.” While it’s true that Arya may not be Jon’s sister by blood, the text supports the “sister” part of the prophecy by reiterating the word “sister.”

[[ There is a staggering amount of support for this part of the vision, but it’s different than the kind of support we’ve been looking for. It spans across multiple books. Every book, in fact. Some of these events are separated by in-story years and leagues.

The case for Arya is proving quite strong, but in order to continue with it, we’re forced to discard a preconception about the vision that we have held from the first time we heard it. Well I can’t speak for you, but it’s one I certainly held. I’ve been trying to fit all the pieces of the vision into one picturesque moment of a girl in grey on a dying horse riding past a lake, but the clues may be demonstrating that it is acceptible for the solution to span the entire map, timeline, and books. It’s possible that the pieces of the vision don’t all occur at the same time or in the same place, but rather represent symbollically the solution and her whole journey. ]]

Thin coat of ice just forming on it

The descriptions of God’s Eye are missing the “thin coat of ice” from the vision. If pieces of the vision can occur at different times in Arya’s story, as was the case with “Jon for protection,” then perhaps the “thin coat of ice” happened later in Arya’s story.

The world grew ever greyer as they drew near to Harrenhal. They rode beneath slate skies, beside waters that shone old and cold as a sheet of beaten steel. (AFFC 27 Jaime III)

While Jaime was traveling as a captive of Brienne, they took a boat down a river that flows into God’s Eye. We can see the water was already getting colder, but this isn’t exactly God’s Eye and “cold” isn’t synonymous with “ice.”

Jaime went to Riverrun and we saw that the riverlands were blanketed in snow.

Instead of closing the shutters he threw them wide. The yard below was covered by a thin white blanket, growing thicker even as he watched. The merlons on the battlements wore white cowls. The flakes fell silently, a few drifting in the window to melt upon his face. Jaime could see his own breath.

Snow in the riverlands. If it was snowing here, it could well be snowing on Lannisport as well, and on King’s Landing. Winter is marching south, and half our granaries are empty. Any crops still in the fields were doomed. There would be no more plantings, no more hopes of one last harvest. He found himself wondering what his father would do to feed the realm, before he remembered that Tywin Lannister was dead.

When morning broke the snow was ankle deep, and deeper in the godswood, where drifts had piled up under the trees. (AFFC Jaime VII)

God’s Eye is in the riverlands but we still need to see ice on God’s Eye before we can call the vision satisfied. This snow wasn’t observable by Arya, either.

During Arya’s training in Braavos at The House of Black and White, she was expected to return to the kindly man regularly with a list of three new things she has learned while undercover. The information could be anything as long as it was new, and some of her answers included tricks, secrets, and tales from the lips of sailors. Sometimes she spied the secret habits of a citizen or heard word of the happenings in Westeros.

“Better. And what else do you know?”

It is snowing in the riverlands, in Westeros, she almost said. But he would have asked her how she knew that, and she did not think that he would like her answer. (ADWD The Blind Girl)

Arya couldn’t use this piece of information as one of her three because the kindly man can always tell when she’s lying. If he asked her how she knew that, she would have had to lie.

Arya learned that it’s snowing in the riverlands while she was asleep.

Her nights were lit by distant stars and the shimmer of moonlight on snow, but every dawn she woke to darkness.

She opened her eyes and stared up blind at the black that shrouded her, her dream already fading. So beautiful. She licked her lips, remembering. The bleating of the sheep, the terror in the shepherd’s eyes, the sound the dogs had made as she killed them one by one, the snarling of her pack. Game had become scarcer since the snows began to fall, but last night they had feasted.

Nymeria is still roaming the riverlands and Arya unknowingly wargs into her at night. Through the eyes of Nymeria, Arya saw snow in the riverlands. It isn’t ice on God’s Eye, however, so I consider this part of the vision incorrect or incomplete.

A girl in grey A girl as grey as ash

Arya’s eyes are Stark grey. The Stark sigil is a grey direwolf. However, we’re not looking for a girl who is grey. She needs to be in grey to match the prophecy.

During Arya’s time at Harrenhal, her bold tongue got her into trouble.

“I’d sooner tend the horses.” Arya liked horses, and maybe if she was in the stables she’d be able to steal one and escape.

[…] [slap]

“Harra, I believe we should give this one to Weese.”

“If you think so, Amabel.” They gave her a shift of grey roughspun wool and a pair of ill-fitting shoes, and sent her off. (ACOK Arya VI)

They assigned her to the cruel master Weese and provided her with the common servant garb of grey roughspun wool. These were the only clothes Arya owned and she wore them during her time at Harrenhal.

On the road Arya had felt like a sheep, but Harrenhal turned her into a mouse. She was grey as a mouse in her scratchy wool shift, and like a mouse she kept to the crannies and crevices and dark holes of the castle, scurrying out of the way of the mighty. (ACOK Arya VII)

The author reminded us four chapters in a row that Arya was wearing the grey shift and how its color reflects “Weasel’s” identity.

A shove sent her stumbling to the floor. Her hem caught on a loose nail in the splintered wooden bench and ripped as she fell. “You’ll mend that before you sleep,” Weese announced as he pulled the last bit of meat off the capon. When he was finished he sucked his fingers noisily, and threw the bones to his ugly spotted dog.

“Weese,” Arya whispered that night as she bent over the tear in her shift. “Dunsen, Polliver, Raff the Sweetling,” she said, calling a name every time she pushed the bone needle through the undyed wool. (ACOK Arya VIII)

Arya used her third wish to name Jaqen Hagar, promising to unname him if he would help free the captive northmen.

The Lorathi brought the blade to Arya still red with heart’s blood and wiped it clean on the front of her shift. “A girl should be bloody too. This is her work.” (ACOK Arya IX)

Arya and Jaqen freed the prisoners and won the castle using Weasel soup.

The lord waved a hand. “Make her presentable,” he said to no one in particular, “and make certain she knows how to pour wine without spilling it.”

Roose Bolton demanded to know Weasel’s real name. Arya told Roose that her name is really Nan. Roose rewarded her for the Weasel soup stunt with a promotion – from servant to cupbearer. She shed her grey rodent identity “Weasel” and her grey clothes with it. Roose ordered no one in particular to change the girl’s clothes and Arya reappeared wearing a tunic adorned with House Bolton’s flayed man sigil.

[…] the flayed man on the front of Arya’s tunic. (ACOK Arya X)

So the color grey might be able to represent Arya’s time at Harrenhal. But the grey representations continue in Braavos as well. During Arya’s time in Braavos, she is a girl in grey because Braavos is a grey city.

Braavos is all stone, a grey city in a green sea. (AFFC Arya I)

streets of grey stone houses (AFFC Arya I)

a massive grey stone roadway (AFFC Arya I)

windowless temple of dark grey stone (AFFC Arya I)

fog covered the ground like a frayed grey blanket (AFFC Arya II)

The chill off the grey stone walls gave Cat gooseprickles. (AFFC Cat of the Canals)

passing under the immense grey arches of the sweetwater river (AFFC Cat of the Canals)

a second cat appeared, a sad, bedraggled grey thing with a stub tail (AFFC Cat of the Canals)

When at last day came to Braavos, it came grey and dark and overcast. (ADWD The Ugly Little Girl)

Even on a cold grey day like this, the harbor was a busy place. (ADWD The Ugly Little Girl)

[Spoilers TWOW]

Half-light filled the room, grey and gloomy. (TWOW Mercy)

If the fog was thick there was nothing to see but grey (TWOW Mercy)

In the fog all cats are grey (TWOW Mercy)

The fog opened before her like a tattered grey curtain (TWOW Mercy)

Another way that Arya is a girl in grey is that all throughout her story, she frequently has wolf dreams when she sleeps.

Then a grey blur flashed past her, and suddenly Nymeria was there (AGOT Sansa I)

Nymeria’s fur is grey.

A deer, once.

There were a few deer in Arya’s story, and that doesn’t sit well with me. There should only be one deer as the vision specifies.

Yoren turned to Koss and Kurz, who’d been taken as poachers. He would send them ahead of the column, into the woods, and come dusk they would be back with a deer slung between them on a pole (ACOK Arya III)

A hunting party returned from the wood, carrying a deer’s carcass slung from a pole. (ACOK Arya V)

These two were dead but a deer is a deer, I guess.

She chased them as she had often chased a red deer through the trees (ASOS Arya XII)

Arya was having a wolf dream here. The deer was just a memory.

The search for the deer is yielding too many deer, so we need to try to find new meaning in the words of the prophecy. We know the author likes to use heraldry to represent people, so the deer in the vision might be the stag on the sigil of House Baratheon. A stag is a male deer and Arya has been traveling in the company of one male Baratheon bastard named Gendry.

“You don’t. You stink.” Arya shoved him back against the anvil and made to run, but Gendry caught her arm. She stuck a foot between his legs and tripped him, but he yanked her down with him, and they rolled across the floor of the smithy. He was very strong, but she was quicker. Every time he tried to hold her still she wriggled free and punched him. Gendry only laughed at the blows, which made her mad. He finally caught both her wrists in one hand and started to tickle her with the other, so Arya slammed her knee between his legs, and wrenched free. Both of them were covered in dirt, and one sleeve was torn on her stupid acorn dress. “I bet I don’t look so nice now,” she shouted. (ASOS Arya IV)

When she can she rides along the bed of little streams, to throw hunters off her trail.

Arya, Gendry, and Hot Pie escaped Harrenhal with horses and a map. They had some difficulty trying to match the rivers with the ones on the map.

“There’s miles and miles before we reach the Trident,” she said. “We won’t be there for days. This must be some different river, one of these, see.” She showed him some of the thinner blue lines the mapmaker had painted in, each with a name painted in fine script beneath it. “The Darry, the Greenapple, the Maiden… here, this one, the Little Willow, it might be that.”

Hot Pie looked from the line to the river. “It doesn’t look so little to me.”
Gendry was frowning as well. “The one you’re pointing at runs into that other one, see.”

“The Big Willow,” she read.

“The Big Willow, then. See, and the Big Willow runs into the Trident, so we could follow the one to the other, but we’d need to go downstream, not up. Only if this river isn’t the Little Willow, if it’s this other one here…”

“Rippledown Rill,” Arya read.

“See, it loops around and flows down toward the lake, back to Harrenhal.” He traced the line with a finger.

Hot Pie’s eyes grew wide. “No! They’ll kill us for sure.”

“We have to know which river this is,” declared Gendry, in his stubbornest voice. “We have to know.” (ASOS Arya I)

Hot Pie echos my initial thoughts. These “streams” don’t look so little to me. They’re rivers, aren’t they? As it turns out, the way to measure the difference between a stream and a river is in how it can be crossed.

Generally, the difference is size: you can step over a brook, jump over a creek, wade across a stream, and swim across a river. (Google)

We have better ways to measure and define streams and rivers in the modern day, but maybe this practical metric is how people do it in the story. Arya waded across each stream on horseback and the water only came up to the horse’s belly.

The river, whatever its name, was running brown and fast, and the deep part in the middle came up past the horse’s belly. Water filled her boots, but she pressed in her heels all the same and climbed out on the far bank. (ASOS Arya I)

Horses are 5-6 feet tall, so these streams can certainly be waded by people on foot too.

The group was in distress because they were being hunted by Vargo Hoat’s group of sellswords, the Bloody Mummers.

If they didn’t want to follow, they could find Riverrun on their own, though more likely the Mummers would just find them. (ASOS Arya I)

They were looking for the Trident so they could follow it to Riverrun. Arya has seen the Trident on her journey to King’s Landing and she knows how big it is.

Arya chewed her lip. “I don’t think this is the Trident.” The river was swollen by the rain, but even so it couldn’t be much more than thirty feet across. She remembered the Trident as being much wider. “It’s too little to be the Trident,” she told them, “and we didn’t come far enough.” (ASOS Arya I)

Arya went to sleep and her wolf dream began. When she saw the Bloody Mummers, the author gave us the other word we’re looking for.

They thought they were hunting her, she knew with all the strange sharp certainty of dreams, but they were wrong. She was hunting them. (ASOS Arya I)

While those streams and hunters might match pretty well, the next ones are better matches because the words of the prophecy appear right in the descriptions.

That day Arya quickened their pace, keeping the horses to a trot as long as she dared, and sometimes spurring to a gallop when she spied a flat stretch of field before them. That was seldom enough, though; the ground was growing hillier as they went. The hills were not high, nor especially steep, but there seemed to be no end of them, and they soon grew tired of climbing up one and down the other, and found themselves following the lay of the land, along streambeds and through a maze of shallow wooded valleys where the trees made a solid canopy overhead. (ASOS Arya I)

And Arya is certainly “riding along” them.

We’ve been going south all day, she wanted to tell him. And yesterday too, when we were riding along that streambed. (ASOS Arya II)

Later, Arya tried to escape the Brotherhood without Banners and encountered more streambeds to ride along.

“He’s just a stupid liar.” Arya left the trail, leapt a rotten log and splashed across a streambed, ignoring the shouts of the outlaws behind her. (ASOS Arya VIII)

She was captured by Sandor Clegane, and Sandor had to ride up the middle of a stream to throw the Brotherhood off their trail.

There’s no way across, she thought. Lord Beric will catch us for sure. Clegane had pushed his big black stallion hard, doubling back thrice to throw off pursuit, once even riding half a mile up the center of a swollen stream . . . but Arya still expected to see the outlaws every time she looked back. (ASOS Arya IX)

If we suppose that these events are the “streams” and “hunters” in the vision, wouldn’t Melisandre have seen Sandor on the horse beside her? Does it matter that Sandor, not Arya, was holding the reins? The vision doesn’t exclude the possibility that the girl in grey was riding double, so it’s a match.

[[ We have another overwhelming match, but we’ve had to discard two more preconceptions about the vision in order to find them. (1) That the girl in grey was riding alone. (2) That the girl in grey was piloting the horse. If Arya is the girl in grey, the vision continues to weave the literal with the symbolic. ]]

She is staying well away from villages

Arya was staying well away from villages during her time as a captive of Sandor Clegane.

So she stayed with the Hound.

They rode every day, never sleeping twice in the same place, avoiding towns and villages and castles as best they could. (ASOS Arya XII)

[[ Some pieces of the prophecy will appear in the text so literally and with such prevalence that they serve as grappling points for those of us playing the puzzle. They tell the reader “Hey, you might be on the right track. Keep going, but some of the pieces won’t be as literal as this one.” I think God’s Eye was one of those grappling points, and this one might be another. ]]

On a dying horse

Sandor Clegane kidnapped Arya and they spent five chapters together in ASOS traveling through the riverlands on a horse named Stranger. The horse is black and shares a name with the Faith of the Seven’s aspect of death.

She held her tongue and sat stiff as the Hound turned the stallion’s head and trotted along the ridgeline, following the river downstream. (ASOS Arya IX)

Stranger’s color and temperment could represent an aspect of death very well. He’s hostile towards everyone except Sandor.

He was gentle as an old gelding with his master, but otherwise he had a temper as black as he was. She had never known a horse so quick to bite or kick. (ASOS Arya IX)

After Arya left Sandor for dead, Stranger showed up again at the Quiet Isle.

You may have seen a big black stallion in our stables. That was his warhorse, Stranger. A blasphemous name. We prefer to call him Driftwood, as he was found beside the river. I fear he has his former master’s nature. (AFFC Brienne VI)

Brother Narbert thought the horse was surely whelped in hell.

The Seven send us blessings, and the Seven send us trials. Handsome he may be, but Driftwood was surely whelped in hell. When we sought to harness him to a plow he kicked Brother Rawney and broke his shinbone in two places. (AFFC Brienne VI)

“Dying” could be a symbolic representation of the stranger. The same way a tree where people are hanged might be called a hanging tree, a horse of death can be called a dying horse even though the horse is perfectly healthy. It plays on our expectation of language without requiring a leap in logic. Considering that Melisandre, the prophet, is not a follower of The Seven, it is understandable why a symbolic representation of The Seven’s aspect of death might be interpreted as simply a dying horse.

Fleeing from this marriage they have made for her

At the House of Black and White, Arya was offered three different lives.

Or if it is marriage and children you desire, tell me, and we shall find a husband for you. Some honest apprentice boy, a rich old man, a seafarer, whatever you desire.”

She wanted none of that. Wordless, she shook her head. (AFFC Arya II)

One life in service to a merchant, one as a courtesan, and one of marriage. Maybe we can stretch her refusal to mean “fleeing,” but we shouldn’t have to. This marriage doesn’t match the vision.

If we find new meaning in the words of the prophecy, perhaps the marriage doesn’t need to involve Arya at all. The Red Wedding was a marriage from which Arya certainly fled. The logic works even though she wasn’t the bride. However, the Red Wedding was not “made for her” in any sense of the words. In fact, Robb believes Arya is dead.

“So you pray. Have you considered your sisters? What of their rights? I agree that the north must not be permitted to pass to the Imp, but what of Arya? By law, she comes after Sansa . . . your own sister, trueborn . . .”

“. . . and dead. No one has seen or heard of Arya since they cut Father’s head off. Why do you lie to yourself? Arya’s gone, the same as Bran and Rickon (ASOS Catelyn V)

During Arya’s time at Harrenhal, she met a boy named Elmar Frey. Elmar was Roose Bolton’s squire.

Elmar Frey was no older than she was, and short for his age besides. He had been rolling a barrel of sand across the uneven stone, and was red-faced from exertion. Arya went to help him. (ACOK Arya X)

In [AGOT Catelyn IX] Robb Stark split his army and bought passage to cross the bridge of House Frey at the Twins. As part of the pact sealed between Catelyn Stark and Walder Frey, they agreed that Robb would marry one of Walder’s daughters, and Arya would marry Walder’s youngest son Elmar.

 “Also, if your sister Arya is returned to us safely, it is agreed that she will marry Lord Walder’s youngest son, Elmar, when the two of them come of age.”

Robb looked nonplussed. “Arya won’t like that one bit.” (AGOT Catelyn IX)

Arya and Elmar met at Harrenhal, though Arya didn’t know that she was arranged to marry him. And Elmar thought she was a serving girl named Nan.

“My princess,” he sobbed. “We’ve been dishonored, Aenys says. There was a bird from the Twins. My lord father says I’ll need to marry someone else, or be a septon.”

A stupid princess, she thought, that’s nothing to cry over. “My brothers might be dead,” she confided.

Elmar gave her a scornful look. “No one cares about a serving girl’s brothers.”
It was hard not to hit him when he said that. “I hope your princess dies,” she said, and ran off before he could grab her. (ACOK Arya X)

It happens quickly and without ceremony, but there is Arya running away from a person who could symbolize a “marriage they have made for her.” Since Arya didn’t know about the marriage arrangement, she wasn’t fleeing from the marriage on purpose. The wording of the prophecy led us to believe that the marriage was the cause of the fleeing, though the wording doesn’t exclude the possibility that it was an accident or a coincidence. Another preconception about the prophecy is shed.

Even as I watched she crumbled and blew away

At the House of Black and White, the kindly man tells Arya that she needs to get rid of Arya Stark’s belongings if she intends to become no one.

He picked up her silver fork. “This belongs to Arya of House Stark. All these things belong to her. There is no place for them here. There is no place for her. Hers is too proud a name, and we have no room for pride. We are servants here.” (AFFC Arya II)

He explains to Arya what becoming a Faceless Man will cost her.

He is trying to scare me away, Arya thought, the way he did with the worm. “I don’t care about that.”

“You should. Stay, and the Many-Faced God will take your ears, your nose, your tongue. He will take your sad grey eyes that have seen so much. He will take your hands, your feet, your arms and legs, your private parts. He will take your hopes and dreams, your loves and hates. Those who enter His service must give up all that makes them who they are. Can you do that?” He cupped her chin and gazed deep into her eyes, so deep it made her shiver. “No,” he said, “I do not think you can.”

Arya knocked his hand away. “I could if I wanted to.” (AFFC Arya II)

This all seems to be a bit too much for Arya because she implies that she doesn’t want to. Nevertheless, she proceeds to throw away her belongings.

At the water’s edge she stopped, the silver fork in hand. It was real silver, solid through and through. It’s not my fork. It was Salty that he gave it to. She tossed it underhand, heard the soft plop as it sank below the water.

Her floppy hat went next, then the gloves. They were Salty’s too. She emptied her pouch into her palm; five silver stags, nine copper stars, some pennies and halfpennies and groats. She scattered them across the water. Next her boots. They made the loudest splashes. Her dagger followed, the one she’d gotten off the archer who had begged the Hound for mercy. Her swordbelt went into the canal. Her cloak, tunic, breeches, smallclothes, all of it. All but Needle. (AFFC Arya II)

Maybe this is Arya’s identity crumbling piece by piece as she throws her belongings into the water, but that’s a stretch. We haven’t seen the word “crumble” or anything close to it.

She hides Needle in a crack of stone outside the House of Black and White, and we see a word we’re looking for.

She padded up the steps as naked as her name day, clutching Needle. Halfway up, one of the stones rocked beneath her feet. Arya knelt and dug around its edges with her fingers. It would not move at first, but she persisted, picking at the crumbling mortar with her nails. Finally, the stone shifted. She grunted and got both hands in and pulled. A crack opened before her. (AFFC Arya II)

Arya isn’t crumbling, so this isn’t a match.

[[ This seems like a good place to talk about symbolism and degrees of removal. Ideally, we want to find a solution with zero degrees of removal. The God’s Eye is a good example of a solution that didn’t use any symbolism. It was a literal lake that was literally blue. That’s the strongest solution we could hope to find. If it were a symbolic lake that was literally blue, such as a blue sigil of House Lake, I would still accept it as a satisfying solution. That’s one degree of removal through symbolism.

In this case, the hiding place is literally crumbling. But remember, we’re looking for a crumbling Arya not a crumbling hiding place.

Let’s suppose that Needle is a symbolic Arya. I might accept a literal crumbling of a symbolic Arya (Needle crumbles) or a symbolic crumbling of a literal Arya (Identity loss), but I wouldn’t accept a symbolic crumbling of a symbolic Arya (Needle’s identity loss). What we have here is a literal crumbling of a literal hiding place of a symbolic Arya. It’s two degrees removed from the words of the prophecy – once literally and once symbolically. It’s unsatisfying because it is too far removed. ]]

“Will you show me how to change my face?”

“If you wish.” He cupped her chin in his hand and turned her head. “Puff up your cheeks and stick out your tongue.”

Arya puffed up her cheeks and stuck out her tongue.

“There. Your face is changed.” (AFFC Arya II)

Arya constantly reveals her true motivations to the kindly man. She wants to learn how to do the cool face trick like Jaqen Hagar.

“Why are you here, liar?”

“To serve. To learn. To change my face.”

“First change your heart. The gift of the Many-Faced God is not a child’s plaything. You would kill for your own purposes, for your own pleasures. Do you deny it?” (ADWD The Ugly Little Girl)

The kindly man explains the cost of becoming a Faceless Man again.

“What price?”

“The price is you. The price is all you have and all you ever hope to have. We took your eyes and gave them back. Next we will take your ears, and you will walk in silence. You will give us your legs and crawl. You will be no one’s daughter, no one’s wife, no one’s mother. Your name will be a lie, and the very face you wear will not be your own.”

She almost bit her lip again, but this time she caught herself and stopped. My face is a dark pool, hiding everything, showing nothing. She thought of all the names that she had worn: Arry, Weasel, Squab, Cat of the Canals. She thought of that stupid girl from Winterfell called Arya Horseface. Names did not matter. “I can pay the price. Give me a face.” (ADWD The Ugly Little Girl)

Both Arya and the reader begin to understand how literal this process will be. Arya passed the blind portion of the test, but next she will be deaf, then crawling, then barren.

The kindly man leads her down to the hall of faces and finally changes her face.

The girl took a deep shuddering breath, and realized it was true. No one was choking her, no one was hitting her. Even so, her hand was shaking as she raised it to her face. Flakes of dried blood crumbled at the touch of her fingertips, black in the lantern light. She felt her cheeks, touched her eyes, traced the line of her jaw. “My face is still the same.” (ADWD The Ugly Little Girl)

And Arya crumbled.

Arya has assumed many identities in the story by changing her name, clothes, behavior and other mundane things, but for the first time her identity changed through magic. Maybe that magic ended Melisandre’s vision. Maybe that’s why it blew away.

The Prophet

I think Arya as the girl in grey fits well with Melisandre’s characterization. She considers herself very good at reading and interpreting the flames, but she seems to be wrong very often. However, she always hits some parts with striking accuracy but doesn’t receive acknowledgement for them. Her correct interpretations are sometimes obscured from her point of view.

For example, Melisandre sees a vision of Renly smashing Stannis’s forces beneath the walls of King’s Landing, but Stannis believes that Renly’s death has prevented that scenario from happening.

Melisandre saw another day in her flames as well. A morrow where Renly rode out of the south in his green armor to smash my host beneath the walls of King’s Landing. Had I met my brother there, it might have been me who died in place of him.” (ACOK Davos II)

Loras’s brother, Ser Garlan Tyrell, wears Renly’s armor in the Battle of the Blackwater to make it appear that Renly’s ghost has returned for vengeance against the kinslaying Stannis. But this fact never finds its way to Melisandre’s ears. The tragedy in Melisandre’s interpretations isn’t that she’s always wrong, it’s that she doesn’t know how terrifyingly right she is the first time.

Melisandre became apologetic to Jon and admitted defeat after the arrival of Alys Karstark.

“I was not wrong.”

“You were not right. Alys is not Arya.”

“The vision was a true one. It was my reading that was false. I am as mortal as you, Jon Snow. All mortals err.” (ADWD Jon X)

Pressure from Jon and herself caused her to second-guess what she saw in the vision even though she was certain from the beginning that the girl in grey was Jon Snow’s sister.

“The girl,” she said. “A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow’s sister.” Who else could it be? (ADWD Melisandre I)

One way that characters and readers often misinterpret prophecy is that we simply aren’t thinking big enough. Prophecies are presumably sent by a divine being and a god has a much wider gaze than mortals do. Melisandre alludes to this idea in a snarky manner towards Davos.

“I have worshiped them all my life.”

“All your life, Davos Seaworth? As well say it was so yesterday.” She shook her head sadly. (ASOS Davos III)

To a god, a lifetime is a blip on the radar and that’s reflected in the visions they send. Rivers look like little streams. A series of events that took place over years culminates into a single symbolic image of a girl in grey on a dying horse. The images of prophecy can be so dense with answers that they’re impossible to decipher.

After the Hound captured Arya, she tried to leave a trail of breadcrumbs by marking trees.

She had tried to help them by scratching her name on the trunks of trees when she went in the bushes to make water, but the fourth time she did it he caught her, and that was the end of that. It doesn’t matter, Arya told herself, Thoros will find me in his flames. Only he hadn’t. Not yet, anyway, and once they crossed the river . . . (ASOS Arya IX)

Thoros may not have found her in the flames, but maybe another red priest did.

As I say goodbye, I want to talk a little bit about flexibility. There were some parts where you may have noticed that I discarded an idea or solution because it didn’t match well enough for me, personally. There is a lot of room for opinion when playing a prophecy. If something doesn’t feel right to you then don’t accept it. If something does then chase it to the ends of the earth. That’s the only advice I can give on that front.

Arya’s solutions feel right to me, but I know they won’t feel right for everybody and that’s okay. I’m not satisfied with the “ice” part so I still consider this prophecy unsolved. We may have to wait for more books before this prophecy is entirely solvable, but maybe more likely I am just missing some things. Even when all the books are finished, we may still disagree on the solution to prophecies and that’s okay too. Arya is 7/8 for the vision. I hope it was fun and thanks for reading.

Credits, inspirations, references, and thanks (in no particular order):

Melisandre of Asshai by radiowesteros
Prophecies in ASoIaF by Radio Westeros
I think Val’s husband is… by cantuse
Lyanna the Grey by cantuse
Grey Girl on a Dying Horse – Mel’s Vision in the flames, did she get the right girl? by /u/DutchArya
Who is the “Grey girl” in Mel’s vision: Alys, Jeyne, Sansa, Lyanna, Arya? by /u/DutchArya
/r/pureasoiaf
/r/asoiaf
The Girl in Grey: A New Interpretation by radiowesteros
A Search of Ice and Fire
Westeros.org
quartermaester.info Interactive Map
An overlooked red herring in the flames -My first girl in grey theory discussion
The Tough Guide to Fantasy Land by Diana Wynne Jones


Suddenly she looked like she was going to cry. “I wish you were coming with us.”

“Different roads sometimes lead to the same castle. Who knows?” (AGOT Jon II)


Acclaim

u/Nowthinkaboutyourdad

3 pts 2017

This is excellent

u/Milka0204

2 pts 2017

This was really nice and interesting to read, thanks a lot.

u/Haramune

3 pts 2017

This is what I love about the books so much more than the show, you can feel grrm wants to give us a much fuller experience where we really get into the books and think about things and feel things, you can really feel his passion and emotion at times in the books and then enjoy his logic and humour the next page,

whereas as much as the show is beautiful, the locations and costumes mainly, and the actions scenes are great I really feel they’re a lot more direct with the whole ‘beginning-middle-end’ and giving us popcorn moments we don’t really think about

u/SlightlySearedTuna

3 pts 2017

Great read ..

u/aowshadow

5 pts 2017

Sources included, lot of research and time, valid interpretations… what’s not to love, in a post like this? Very exhaustive, a really nice job.

u/DutchArya
 

4 pts 2017

Fantastic work!

u/Arya1100

2 pts 2017

But damn this was a good read! Thanks! 🙂

u/maestercynic

2 pts 2017

Wonderful work! Unfortunately, Martin may well have played a little trick on us and there is no set answer to the prophecy. And, that is Martin’s point. We cannot know if this is a red wedding forecast type prophecy or a self-fulfilling prophecy or a plot fulfilling prophecy or a critique on religious belief prophecy. Still, impressive!

u/M_Tootles

1 pt 2017

I love the way you look into/value the repetition of specific verbiage as I do. I was already persuaded the body of water was the God’s Eye, but you just lock that shit DOWN. Bravo.

I’m far less persuaded grey girl will prove to be Arya.


Oct 10, 2024 Update

“Stop it!” Bran shouted. Summer slid toward the weirwood, his white teeth bared.

Jojen Reed took no mind. “When I touched Summer, I felt you in him. Just as you are in
him now.”

“You couldn’t have. I was in bed. I was sleeping.”

“You were in the godswood, all in grey.”

“It was only a bad dream . . .” (ACOK Bran IV)

Jojen uses “all in grey” to mean Bran is warged into his grey direwolf Summer. It validates the same usage for the Girl in Grey prophecy for Arya being warged into Nymeria, who is grey.

 


Updated Mar 21, 2021 – Different roads passage
Updated Sep 4, 2022 – Added Acclaim, link to video
Updated Oct 13, 2022 – Embedded videos
Updated Oct 10, 2024 – Bran update

Three Trials of Jon and Daenerys: Justice or Revenge?

Video versions:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeVV8mdT-xc
Bitchute: https://www.bitchute.com/video/tiww3gjNHDRI/
WordPress Embed:

Dany is smart as a whip like Tyrion. If you pose her a problem where there are only two options, she will think of a third. However, Dany struggles to tell the difference between justice and revenge, and that’s echoed in the story of Aerys, the father she doesn’t want to be like.

The truth is, I wanted to watch you for a time before pledging you my sword. To make certain that you were not . . .”

“. . . my father’s daughter?” If she was not her father’s daughter, who was she? (ASOS Daenerys VI)

Each of the main characters is struggling with identity. They need to figure out who they are, where they belong in the world and I gather that they must accomplish that in a way that does not neglect their history or heritage, but incorporates it. Their history and heritage is their House, childhood, home castle and home town, their animal sigil, the color of the sigil, the house words, previous friendships, enemies, noble deeds and crimes. Characters who deny their heritage and history are punished severely for it. They get lost in the wilderness. They’re captured and mutilated. They’re forced to live at court beneath the cruel thumb of a tyrant and, in some cases, they simply die. If you want to survive this story, embrace your heritage and find a way to make it work for you.

“He is part of you, Robb. To fear him is to fear you.”

“I am not a wolf, no matter what they call me.” Robb sounded cross. (ASOS Catelyn II)

Dany’s heritage is dragons, Fire and Blood, incest, the proudest of all Houses, Dragonstone, exile, Khal Drogo, slavery, rape, passion, rapid conquest, and betrayal. It’s burning ambition, red and black and hot.

Jorah is a useful guide for helping Dany accomplish the things she wants to accomplish, but he is not a moral compass. Barristan is her first advisor to serve as a proper moral compass. A gift from ye goode olde days. But I suspect Barristan is too late. So here is an idea that currently has me.

Daenerys is the antithesis of Ned’s ethic about justice.

Bran thought about it. “Can a man still be brave if he’s afraid?”

“That is the only time a man can be brave,” his father told him. “Do you understand why I did it?”

“He was a wildling,” Bran said. “They carry off women and sell them to the Others.”

His lord father smiled. “Old Nan has been telling you stories again. In truth, the man was an oathbreaker, a deserter from the Night’s Watch. No man is more dangerous. The deserter knows his life is forfeit if he is taken, so he will not flinch from any crime, no matter how vile. But you mistake me. The question was not why the man had to die, but why I must do it.”

Bran had no answer for that. “King Robert has a headsman,” he said, uncertainly.

“He does,” his father admitted. “As did the Targaryen kings before him. Yet our way is the older way. The blood of the First Men still flows in the veins of the Starks, and we hold to the belief that the man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. If you would take a man’s life, you owe it to him to look into his eyes and hear his final words. And if you cannot bear to do that, then perhaps the man does not deserve to die.

“One day, Bran, you will be Robb’s bannerman, holding a keep of your own for your brother and your king, and justice will fall to you. When that day comes, you must take no pleasure in the task, but neither must you look away. A ruler who hides behind paid executioners soon forgets what death is.” (AGOT Bran I)

In the first chapter of the series when Ned explains the ethic, it’s mentioned in the same passage that the Targaryens use executioners. The contrast between the Stark and Targaryen approach to justice is established immediately.

“Why do the gods make kings and queens, if not to protect the ones who can’t protect themselves?”

“Some kings make themselves. Robert did.”

“He was no true king,” Dany said scornfully. “He did no justice. Justice… that’s what kings are for.” (ASOS Daenerys III)

Justice sounds good, but what is it? Or perhaps more importantly, what is it not? That’s what Jon and Dany are going to explore!

First Trial

Jon

Jon’s first hands-on experience with justice is Ygritte. During a ranging with Qorin Halfhand, the group encounters and fights some wildlings. Jon notices at the last second that one of the wildlings is a young girl.

His hand froze. “A girl.”

“A watcher,” said Stonesnake. “A wildling. Finish her.” Jon could see fear and fire in her eyes. Blood ran down her white throat from where the point of his dirk had pricked her. One thrust and it’s done, he told himself. He was so close he could smell onion on her breath. She is no older than I am. Something about her made him think of Arya, though they looked nothing at all alike. “Will you yield?” he asked, giving the dirk a half turn. And if she doesn’t?

“I yield.” Her words steamed in the cold air.

“You’re our captive, then.” He pulled the dirk away from the soft skin of her throat.

“Qhorin said nothing of taking captives,” said Stonesnake.

Right away I can see that he doesn’t want to kill her. He’s hoping that she’ll yield and fearing that she won’t, because he doesn’t know what he will do if she doesn’t. It shows me that he doesn’t consider killing her an option even if she resists. I don’t blame him. I would have difficulty sticking a knife in a strange girl’s throat too. Jon holds back from killing her for now, against the advice of his companion.

Stonesnake gestured at the long-hafted axe that lay beside her sleeping furs. “She was reaching for that when you grabbed her. Give her half a chance and she’ll bury it between your eyes.”

“I won’t give her half a chance.” (ACOK Jon VI)

Jon accepts the responsibility and risk that comes with his decision, perhaps unwisely. Ygritte goes on to tell Jon the story of Bael the Bard, which I think humanizes them in each other’s eyes. Qorin and the other members return and lay down the law.

“Tell me true. If I fell into the hands of your people and yielded myself, what would it win me?”

“A slower death than elsewise.”

The big ranger looked to Jon. “We have no food to feed her, nor can we spare a man to watch her.”

“The way before us is perilous enough, lad,” said Squire Dalbridge. “One shout when we need silence, and every man of us is doomed.”

Ebben drew his dagger. “A steel kiss will keep her quiet.”

Jon’s throat was raw. He looked at them all helplessly. “She yielded herself to me.”

“Then you must do what needs be done,” Qhorin Halfhand said. “You are the blood of Winterfell and a man of the Night’s Watch.” He looked at the others. “Come, brothers. Leave him to it. It will go easier for him if we do not watch.”

All four Night’s Watch men have chimed in, and the order is clear. If Jon can’t bring himself to do his duty, he’ll consider himself a failure. His brothers will consider him a failure as well, and there’s the risk of Ygritte getting them all killed. Then the blood will be on Jon’s hands. Nobody will condemn Jon for killing her and in fact his deed may be celebrated. He will have killed an enemy of the Night’s Watch.

He raised Longclaw over his head, both hands tight around the grip. One cut, with all my weight behind it. He could give her a quick clean death, at least. He was his father’s son. Wasn’t he? Wasn’t he?

“Do it,” she urged him after a moment. “Bastard. Do it. I can’t stay brave forever.” When the blow did not fall she turned her head to look at him.

Jon lowered his sword. “Go,” he muttered. (ACOK Jon VI)

Is this a case of misplaced compassion, or Ned’s principle in practice? He looked into her eyes, listened to her words and could not swing the sword. Perhaps she did not deserve to die.

[[ It may very well be the case that Jon should have beheaded Ygritte. Maybe Jon needs to become a more stoic man if he wants to minimize suffering in the world. It’s arguable, but the purpose of the ethic is not to define the appropriate course of action or even to guide one towards it. I think the purpose might be to guide one towards the proper guide. To ensure that the execution of a sentence must always pass through the conscience of the person who passed the sentence. It postulates that human life is more valuable than the cost to one’s conscience, reputation, time, or bloody sword. When that cost is too heavy a burden for you, then maybe you are not fit to rule, pass sentences or swing the swords of justice. ]]

Dany

Dany’s first dilemma with justice is with Viserys. Her brother is cruel and abusive, but he’s still her brother.

“You do not understand, ser,” she said. “My mother died giving me birth, and my father and my brother Rhaegar even before that. I would never have known so much as their names if Viserys had not been there to tell me. He was the only one left. The only one. He is all I have.” (AGOT Daenerys V)

Dany tries to protect him by nudging him in the right direction.

Viserys picked up the cloak and sniffed at it. “This stinks of manure. Perhaps I shall use it as a horse blanket.”

“I had Doreah sew it specially for you,” she told him, wounded. “These are garments fit for a khal.”

The power dynamic between them is reversed by Dany’s khaleesihood, and it all comes to a head in Vaes Dothrak.

“He can keep his bloody foal. I’ll cut the bastard out and leave it for him.” The sword point pushed through her silks and pricked at her navel. Viserys was weeping, she saw; weeping and laughing, both at the same time, this man who had once been her brother.

Viserys has drawn steel in a sacred place where steel is forbidden, and carved the skin of the Khal’s pregnant queen in front of the Khal and five thousand Dothraki riders. If at some point in this scene there was a chance for Viserys to walk out of this hall alive, I think this is the point where Dany recognizes that chance has all but vanished. From this point on, she thinks of Viserys as “the man who had once been her brother.” Dany has withdrawn from the sense of family duty she described moments before, and Viserys has certainly provided plenty of reasons to be disowned.

Jhiqui is afraid to translate what Viserys said, but Dany volunteers.

“Don’t be afraid,” she said. “I shall tell him.”

She did not know if she had enough words, yet when she was done Khal Drogo spoke a few brusque sentences in Dothraki, and she knew he understood.

Did Dany give a word-for-word account of all the horrible things Viserys said? Or did she try to protect him one last time by omitting certain ugly details and injecting courtesy where it might be the difference between life and death? I have no way of knowing the manner in which Dany translated except to observe what happens next.

“What did he say?” the man who had been her brother asked her, flinching.

It had grown so silent in the hall that she could hear the bells in Khal Drogo’s hair, chiming softly with each step he took. His bloodriders followed him, like three copper shadows. Daenerys had gone cold all over. “He says you shall have a splendid golden crown that men shall tremble to behold.”

Viserys smiled and lowered his sword. That was the saddest thing, the thing that tore at her afterward … the way he smiled. “That was all I wanted,” he said. “What was promised.”

With Dany’s chilling translation she seems to understand that what is about to happen is not good for Viserys, though she doesn’t bother to convey Drogo’s intent to Viserys. So far, Dany has been a passive bystander to her brother’s execution, but does her silence and inaction mean she is complicit? To what extent do you think Dany is a bystander or a participant?

When the sun of her life reached her, Dany slid an arm around his waist. The khal said a word, and his bloodriders leapt forward. Qotho seized the man who had been her brother by the arms. Haggo shattered his wrist with a single, sharp twist of his huge hands. Cohollo pulled the sword from his limp fingers. Even now Viserys did not understand. “No,” he shouted, “you cannot touch me, I am the dragon, the dragon, and I will be crowned!”

He’s not my brother anymore. I owe him nothing.

Viserys began to scream the high, wordless scream of the coward facing death. He kicked and twisted, whimpered like a dog and wept like a child, but the Dothraki held him tight between them. Ser Jorah had made his way to Dany’s side. He put a hand on her shoulder. “Turn away, my princess, I beg you.”

“No.” She folded her arms across the swell of her belly, protectively.

At the last, Viserys looked at her. “Sister, please … Dany, tell them … make them … sweet sister …”

When the gold was half-melted and starting to run, Drogo reached into the flames, snatched out the pot. “Crown!” he roared. “Here. A crown for Cart King!” And upended the pot over the head of the man who had been her brother.

The sound Viserys Targaryen made when that hideous iron helmet covered his face was like nothing human. His feet hammered a frantic beat against the dirt floor, slowed, stopped. Thick globs of molten gold dripped down onto his chest, setting the scarlet silk to smoldering … yet no drop of blood was spilled.

He was no dragon, Dany thought, curiously calm. Fire cannot kill a dragon.

It’s difficult to tell one way or another, but I dare say Daenerys enjoyed that. And it’s hard to fault her considering what an asshole he was.

“I’d let his whole khalasar fuck you if need be, sweet sister, all forty thousand men, and their horses too if that was what it took to get my army. Be grateful it is only Drogo. In time you may even learn to like him. Now dry your eyes. Illyrio is bringing him over, and he will not see you crying.”

Since Dany did not technically or entirely pass the sentence or swing the sword, and since it isn’t clear whether or not she took pleasure in it, Dany has enough plausible deniability that there’s nothing to criticize with regards to Ned’s code of justice. Still, I can’t help but feel gross about the situation. Surely the method was unnecessarily cruel, but that’s just the Dothraki way. Besides, if Dany had insisted on a less agonizing mode of execution, it may have caused unnecessary problems between her and the Dothraki.

Dany took the easy road, but it isn’t clear that she took the wrong or right one. Where Jon shouldered the moral responsibility toward a stranger, Dany avoided the moral responsibility toward a brother. The circumstances are such that Dany and the sympathetic reader can easily defend that Dany was a helpless bystander, that this is not a fair comparison to Jon’s situation at all, and that Viserys deserved excess suffering anyway. I would have done everything Dany did.

Second Trial

Jon

The wildlings present Jon with a test of loyalty. They capture an old northern man south of the Wall and tell Jon to kill him, no questions asked.

He might have said a thousand things, or wept, or called upon his gods. No words would save him now, though. Perhaps he knew that. So he held his tongue, and looked at Jon in accusation and appeal.

You must not balk, whatever is asked of you. Ride with them, eat with them, fight with them… But this old man had offered no resistance. He had been unlucky, that was all. Who he was, where he came from, where he meant to go on his sorry sway-backed horse… none of it mattered.

He is an old man, Jon told himself. Fifty, maybe even sixty. He lived a longer life than most. The Thenns will kill him anyway, nothing I can say or do will save him. Longclaw seemed heavier than lead in his hand, too heavy to lift. The man kept staring at him, with eyes as big and black as wells. I will fall into those eyes and drown. The Magnar was looking at him too, and he could almost taste the mistrust.

Jon knows that the man is going to die whether Jon does the deed or not, because someone else will do it instead. Jon tries to rationalize himself into action. The man is old anyway, he thinks. He had a good life. But Ned’s words are already in effect. Jon is looking into the man’s eyes with apprehension.

The man is dead. What matter if it is my hand that slays him? One cut would do it, quick and clean. Longclaw was forged of Valyrian steel. Like Ice. Jon remembered another killing; the deserter on his knees, his head rolling, the brightness of blood on snow… his father’s sword, his father’s words, his father’s face… (ASOS Jon V)

Jon tries to convince himself that it would be merciful, in fact, to do the deed himself, because he knows that he can do it in one cut.

[[ The ability to behead a person in one stroke is an admirable trait in this setting I think because it’s an intersection of the traits required to properly shoulder the responsibility of rule and to deal justice. Those traits are strength of character and strength of body. It’s both knowing what needs to be done and having the ability and fortitude to do it. One stroke against the back of the neck severs the brain from the nervous system, getting the job done efficiently while minimizing suffering. ]]

“Do it, Jon Snow,” Ygritte urged. “You must. T’ prove you are no crow, but one o’ the free folk.”

Jon knows that if he does not kill the man, Ygritte will consider it a betrayal of love.

“An old man sitting by a fire?”

“Orell was sitting by a fire too. You killed him quick enough.” The look she gave him then was hard. “You meant t’ kill me too, till you saw I was a woman. And I was asleep.”

“That was different. You were soldiers . . . sentries.”

“Aye, and you crows didn’t want t’ be seen. No more’n we do, now. It’s just the same. Kill him.”

He turned his back on the man. “No.”

Ygritte points out the similarities between this situation and the situation when they met. Ygritte attributes Jon’s mercy toward her to the fact that she’s a girl. It must be her wild red hair and crooked teeth. She accuses him of some kind of hypocrisy, double standard or inconsistency in character. As it turns out, the thing in Jon that compelled him to mercy toward Ygritte is the same thing that compels him to mercy toward the old man. Not her sex, but his conscience.

Unlike the execution of Ygritte, where Jon’s companions left him to do the deed in privacy, now people are watching him. The Night’s Watch’s job certainly does not include killing smallfolk. He knows that if he doesn’t do the killing, somebody else will do it anyway. He also knows that this is a test of loyalty and his own life likely hangs in the balance.

The Magnar moved closer, tall, cold, and dangerous. “I say yes. I command here.”

“You command Thenns,” Jon told him, “not free folk.”

“I see no free folk. I see a crow and a crow wife.”

“I’m no crow wife!” Ygritte snatched her knife from its sheath. Three quick strides, and she yanked the old man’s head back by the hair and opened his throat from ear to ear. Even in death, the man did not cry out. “You know nothing, Jon Snow!” she shouted at him, and flung the bloody blade at his feet.

Ygritte’s denial tells me that she feels betrayed. Despite great immediate risk to his life, Jon remembered Ned’s words and could not bring himself to swing the sword.

[[ I think this scene demonstrates an elaboration of Ned’s code of justice. Do not swing the sword for sentences you did not pass. Another elaboration seen here might be along this line. Even when congruity with the code would certainly cost your life, the cost of deviation is still greater than the cost of congruity.

That is a hell of a claim. It proposes that death is not the worst thing that can happen to a person. Or that the path of minimum suffering for everyone might include your death. ]]

Dany

At the market in Vaes Dothrak, Jorah catches a wine merchant selling poisoned wine to a pregnant Daenerys.

“You will drink,” Dany said, cold as ice. “Empty the cup, or I will tell them to hold you down while Ser Jorah pours the whole cask down your throat.”

The wineseller shrugged, reached for the cup … and grabbed the cask instead, flinging it at her with both hands. (AGOT Daenerys VI)

“Take this one away to await the pleasure of the khal,” he commanded, gesturing at the man on the ground. (AGOT Daenerys VI)

The Merchant Captain places the wineseller in the custody of Khal Drogo.

Dany was near tears as they carried her back. The taste in her mouth was one she had known before: fear. For years she had lived in terror of Viserys, afraid of waking the dragon. This was even worse. It was not just for herself that she feared now, but for her baby.

Jorah tells Dany that Robert Baratheon offers lands and lordships for her and Viserys’s death.

“My brother?” Her sob was half a laugh. “He does not know yet, does he? The Usurper owes Drogo a lordship.” This time her laugh was half a sob. She hugged herself protectively. “And me, you said. Only me?”

“You and the child,” Ser Jorah said, grim.

“No. He cannot have my son.” She would not weep, she decided. She would not shiver with fear. The Usurper has woken the dragon now, she told herself … and her eyes went to the dragon’s eggs resting in their nest of dark velvet.

It’s actually pretty funny, but the inclusion of her unborn baby in the bounty takes Dany from sadness, humor and fear to righteous fury. She has Jorah light a fire and sends him away so that she can try something a little crazy. She places her eggs in the fire and watches it for a long time until it burns out. Though the eggs glow, she’s saddened by the result.

“This seller of poisons ran from the moon of my life. Better he should run after her. So he will. Jhogo, Jorah the Andal, to each of you I say, choose any horse you wish from my herds, and it is yours.

Drogo passes a strange sentence for the wineseller, and it isn’t clear what it means until the very end.

The wineseller hurried behind them, naked, on foot, chained at throat and wrists. His chains were fastened to the halter of Dany’s silver. As she rode, he ran after her, barefoot and stumbling. No harm would come to him … so long as he kept up. (AGOT Daenerys VI)

Though the fate of the man seems obvious in retrospect, Martin obscures that this was an execution at all until A Storm of Swords.

She had dragged the wineseller behind her horse until there was nothing left of him. (ASOS Daenerys VI)

Dany is slightly more involved with this execution than the first. Drogo was the one to pass the sentence, and I could easily make the case that Drogo swung the sword. He tied the man to the horse, after all. But Dany rode the horse, may have set the pace, and as far as I know, she did not insist upon a less cruel form of execution. To be fair, that objection would have been out of place among the Dothraki.

Once again, Dany is shrouded in plausible deniability. The reader is shielded from the knowledge of whether or not Dany enjoyed justice, in no small part because I enjoy it on her behalf. Nobody poisons my khaleesi! Her emotional state and social environment are such that her silence on the matter comes easily. And, of course, an excess of suffering is what pregnant-queen poisoners deserve anyway. I don’t know if I would have done what Dany did, but I could definitely see myself doing it.

Third Trial

Jon

Jon decides to execute Janos Slynt, to everyone’s surprise, but notice Jon’s thoughts before, during and after.

Jon slid the oilcloth down his bastard sword, watching the play of morning light across the ripples, thinking how easily the blade would slide through skin and fat and sinew to part Slynt’s ugly head from his body. All of a man’s crimes were wiped away when he took the black, and all of his allegiances as well, yet he found it hard to think of Janos Slynt as a brother. There is blood between us. This man helped slay my father and did his best to have me killed as well. (ADWD Jon II)

The temptation of vengeance is evident in Jon. Janos is fat, ugly, and Jon is loath to call him brother. Janos helped kill Ned and tried to kill Jon too.

“Keep your ruin, bastard.”

I am giving you a chance, my lord. It is more than you ever gave my father. “You mistake me, my lord,” Jon said. “That was a command, not an offer.” (ADWD Jon II)

Janos continues to disobey and begins spewing venomous insults, kicking furniture and storming out. Jon’s thoughts reveal how he really feels, but so far those feelings don’t seem to have influenced his judgement.

He could only hope that a night’s sleep would bring Lord Janos to his senses.

After all that, Jon still hopes that Janos will come around.

“Please take Lord Janos to the Wall—”

—and confine him to an ice cell, he might have said. A day or ten cramped up inside the ice would leave him shivering and feverish and begging for release, Jon did not doubt. And the moment he is out, he and Thorne will begin to plot again.

“—and hang him,” Jon finished. (ADWD Jon II)

Jon has spent some time in the ice cells himself, so he knows first-hand how torturous they are.

They had pulled him out this morning, after four days in the ice, locked up in a cell five by five by five, too low for him to stand, too tight for him to stretch out on his back. The stewards had long ago discovered that food and meat kept longer in the icy storerooms carved from the base of the Wall . . . but prisoners did not. “You will die in here, Lord Snow,” Ser Alliser had said just before he closed the heavy wooden door, and Jon had believed it. (ASOS Jon X)

In fact, Janos is the one who sentenced Jon to the ice cell to suffer while he awaits his hanging.

“Your father died by the sword, but he was highborn, a King’s Hand. For you, a noose will serve. Ser Alliser, take this turncloak to an ice cell.” (ASOS Jon IX)

How sweet would it be to give Janos the same treatment Janos dealt to you? But Jon is a better man than I. He foregoes the option to inflict certain suffering upon Janos because he believes it will be ineffective at reforming the man. The pursuit to minimize unnecessary suffering is a consistent characteristic of Ned and Jon’s justice.

“This will go easier if you stay still,” Jon Snow promised him. “Move to avoid the cut, and you will still die, but your dying will be uglier. Stretch out your neck, my lord.” The pale morning sunlight ran up and down his blade as Jon clasped the hilt of the bastard sword with both hands and raised it high. “If you have any last words, now is the time to speak them,” he said, expecting one last curse. (ADWD Jon II)

During the execution, Jon is genuinely committed to minimize Janos’s pain. He’s listening to his words and giving him the opportunity to speak.

Janos Slynt twisted his neck around to stare up at him. “Please, my lord. Mercy. I’ll … I’ll go, I will, I …”

Oh no. But there are two sides to this coin. Jon is resisting the temptation of revenge magnificently, but here is the temptation of compassion and it’s heartbreaking.

No, thought Jon. You closed that door. Longclaw descended.

He passed a clear sentence, looked into his eyes, listened to his words, swung the sword, took no pleasure in the task, did not look away, minimized suffering and bore the burden of justice on behalf of society in a manner that will minimally corrupt his conscience in future judgements. Well done from start to finish.

Dany

After Dany’s conquest of Yunkai, she travels to Meereen.

Worst of all, they had nailed a slave child up on every milepost along the coast road from Yunkai, nailed them up still living with their entrails hanging out and one arm always outstretched to point the way to Meereen. Leading her van, Daario had given orders for the children to be taken down before Dany had to see them, but she had countermanded him as soon as she was told. “I will see them,” she said. “I will see every one, and count them, and look upon their faces. And I will remember.”

By the time they came to Meereen sitting on the salt coast beside her river, the count stood at one hundred and sixty-three. I will have this city, Dany pledged to herself once more.

The temptation of revenge is building up, one slow mile at a time, and Dany demonstrates her fortitude. She’s committed to absorbing the emotional impact of her enemies’ crimes, and by the time the 163rd mutilated child is taken down, she is on fire.

She rode past burned buildings and broken windows, through brick streets where the gutters were choked with the stiff and swollen dead. Cheering slaves lifted bloodstained hands to her as she went by, and called her “Mother.”

Dany rides in glory through her conquered city, through piles of bodies and rubble as liberated slaves reach out in worship.

In the plaza before the Great Pyramid, the Meereenese huddled forlorn. The Great Masters had looked anything but great in the morning light. Stripped of their jewels and their fringed tokars, they were contemptible; a herd of old men with shriveled balls and spotted skin and young men with ridiculous hair. Their women were either soft and fleshy or as dry as old sticks, their face paint streaked by tears. “I want your leaders,” Dany told them. “Give them up, and the rest of you shall be spared.”

These masters are disgusting to her because of their decrepit bodies. Wait, no. I mean because of their horrible deeds.

“How many?” one old woman had asked, sobbing. “How many must you have to spare us?”

“One hundred and sixty-three,” she answered.

She had them nailed to wooden posts around the plaza, each man pointing at the next. The anger was fierce and hot inside her when she gave the command; it made her feel like an avenging dragon. But later, when she passed the men dying on the posts, when she heard their moans and smelled their bowels and blood…

Dany put the glass aside, frowning. It was just. It was. I did it for the children.

One hundred and sixty-three “great masters” were crucified in Meereen’s plaza on Dany’s orders. How many of them did she meet eye to eye and listen to their words? How many of the nails did she hammer through their limbs? Is it true that queens are incapable of using a hammer? Or is it that Ned’s code of justice does not apply to female rulers? Plausible deniability has gone out the window. Yet still, I may have done the same thing Dany did.

Maybe it’s no big deal to ignore the code every once in a while. I mean come on. A ruler can’t be expected to do all of the executions. A ruler has more important things to do besides performing executions. On the other hand, if so many execution sentences are being passed that the ruler can’t even afford the time to perform them himself, that seems like a better indication than most that he has forgotten what death is and that he’s unfit to rule.

“Flies are the dead man’s revenge.” Daario smiled, and stroked the center prong of his beard. “Corpses breed maggots, and maggots breed flies.”

“We will rid ourselves of the corpses, then. Starting with those in the plaza below. Grey Worm, will you see to it?”

“The queen commands, these ones obey.”

“Best bring sacks as well as shovels, Worm,” Brown Ben counseled. “Well past ripe, those ones. Falling off those poles in bits and pieces, and crawling with…”

“He knows. So do I.” Dany remembered the horror she had felt when she had seen the Plaza of Punishment in Astapor. I made a horror just as great, but surely they deserved it. Harsh justice is still justice. (ASOS Daenerys VI)

Revenge makes dead men. Dead men breed maggots. Maggots breed flies. Flies are the dead man’s revenge. In other words, revenge begets revenge.

We will rid ourselves of the mess I have created, but I won’t dirty my hands. Do not burden me with a descriptive reminder of the horrors I have wrought in the pursuit of justice. (Not in the book)

If I kill your cousin, you’ll have to kill my brother. Then I’ll have to kill two of your brothers, and around and around it goes. I think that is the situation Dany is dealing with in Meereen.

Crucifixion is unnecessarily cruel where a simple beheading would accomplish the same thing. Or would it?

[[ There is a strong case to be made in favor of maximizing the suffering of a person before executing him. That is: to amplify the effect of the punishment as a deterrent to crime. That’s compelling because the world would certainly be better if no crimes were committed in the first place. So there is a moral case to be made for cruel justice. And sure enough, we can observe and measure that benefit on a shorter timeline. As short and quick as the lash of a whip.

One point that Ned’s code of justice posits, I think, is something along this line. The cost of deviating from the code is always greater than the benefit of deviating from the code.

However, such a thing cannot be easily proven because (1) the full scope and magnitude of the cost and benefit cannot be easily measured. For example, to what degree does the cruelty in crucifixion of a master cause the unnecessary suffering of his son and his daughter after him? (2) Life is too short for the cost to be observed over the duration of a civilization or evolutionary time.

So Ned’s position is not only a hypothesis, it’s a plea. It says “I cannot prove to you that this is true, but for the love of god please behave as if this is true.” It requires a down payment of faith, which is troublesome because competing codes, such as those involving a hammer or a whip, do not. ]]

In Dany’s pursuit to match the cruelty of the slavers and give them the suffering they deserve, Dany has learned first-hand what it feels like to commit the horrors that the slavers committed. Her conscience is screaming at her that it’s wrong, but she can’t reason why or how. When I look back on these events, I can see where her conscience was warning her all along.

Viserys smiled and lowered his sword. That was the saddest thing, the thing that tore at her afterward … the way he smiled.

But later, when she passed the men dying on the posts, when she heard their moans and smelled their bowels and blood…

Dany put the glass aside, frowning. It was just. It was. I did it for the children.

But nobody taught Dany these things about justice. She didn’t have Ned Stark for a moral guide like Jon did.

you must take no pleasure in the task, but neither must you look away. A ruler who hides behind paid executioners soon forgets what death is.

What function does this part of Ned’s code really serve? Do I seriously believe that Jon took no pleasure in watching the fat ugly head of Janos Slynt roll across the mud? And what harm if he did? He may have. Who knows? Killing people, no matter how just, takes a toll on one’s conscience. I think the best anyone can do is minimize that toll as much as possible. The best way to do that is by pursuing actual justice rather than symbolic justice. I imagine there is a critic in Jon’s head whispering to him, as there is in mine.

You liked that didn’t you, Lord Snow? You’ve wanted to kill him for a long time, just like he killed your father. Just like he tried to kill you. That’s why you used the block over the noose. Admit it. You loved feeling the miserable life of Janos Slynt thrum up that stolen sword and into your numb hands. Smooth as the silk that polished it. Lady Catelyn saw you for what you really are, bastard, even if you’ve managed to hide it from everyone else for now. (Not in the book)

Man or woman, a ruler can’t escape his own conscience. So he must behave in a manner such that his conscience can withstand the savage internal criticisms he wages against himself.

An eye for an eye is a horrible doctrine, not because criminals don’t deserve to suffer the suffering they’ve inflicted on others, but because nobody can give another person what they deserve. It’s actually impossible. We have no idea what another person deserves and certainly no clue about how to give it to them. Only god can do that, if there is a god, which is perhaps a compelling reason to believe in god. If there is no god, then who will I think is going to make sure the bad guys get what they deserve? No one. Which means I will have to do it myself.

Maybe one important function of justice is not to give people what they deserve, but to alleviate everyone else of the responsibility of revenge. Revenge corrupts the conscience, the mechanism by which we navigate the moral landscape, and then that mechanism will lead us astray.

So why not use executioners, then? If we can have the executioner absorb the psychic toll of execution, leaving the man who passes the sentences uncorrupted, that seems like a good idea.

“Tell me, then – when he touched a man on the shoulder with his sword, what did he say? ‘Go forth and kill the weak’? Or ‘Go forth and defend them’? At the Trident, those brave men Viserys spoke of who died beneath our dragon banners – did they give their lives because they believed in Rhaegar’s cause, or because they had been bought and paid for?” Dany turned to Mormont, crossed her arms, and waited for an answer.

“My queen,” the big man said slowly, “all you say is true. But Rhaegar lost on the Trident. He lost the battle, he lost the war, he lost the kingdom, and he lost his life. His blood swirled downriver with the rubies from his breastplate, and Robert the Usurper rode over his corpse to steal the iron Throne. Rhaegar fought valiantly, Rhaegar fought nobly, Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaegar died.” (ASOS Daenerys II)

At Astapor, Dany had a conscientious objection to buying and using an army of slave soldiers. Jorah taught Dany that death is all that matters at the end of the day, and that’s why I think Jorah is a bad moral guide. There are things worse than death. Like the death of your family, of everyone you know, of an entire city, of your culture, of the truth. But how could one person’s deviation from Ned’s ethic cause the death of an entire city?

“I want him dead, the traitor. I want his head, you’ll bring me his head, or you’ll burn with all the rest. All the traitors.” (ASOS Jaime II)

Jaime’s memory of the Mad King demonstrates the degree to which Aerys had corrupted. Aerys promised to burn an entire city and he ordered Jaime to bring him the head of Tywin, Jaime’s own father, on the threat of fiery death.

I’m at the character limit so I’ll end that I think Dany’s story is a sympathetic tragedy. Perhaps a lesson being that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I think there is so much more to unpack with the justice theme in Jon and Dany. Thanks for reading, let me know your thoughts and criticisms and see you in the comments!


Acclaim

“Enjoyed reading this.”

” I’m enjoying your analysis of the text and overarching themes of asoiaf and tbh this is my favorite type of discussion about the books.”

“Excellent analysis, this part in particular is going to stick with me for a long time.”

“I have nothing more of substance to add to this conversation but I just HAVE to commend you, this was such a wonderful and engaging read!”

“This is brilliant and, to me anyway, original.”

“Love posts like these.”

“Great post. Well thought about and well put”

“Thank you very much. This was very insightful commentary and I feel it illuminates the story. It is even more important to me now that I feel the show has disconnected from some of these deeper meanings.”

“Is this is new Preston Jacobs? The prophecy has foretold of a YouTuber…another, younger and with more subscribers, to cast him down and take all the tin foil theories.”

this is a good ass video”

“awesome analysis you’ve got a new subcriber friend”

“That ending was some flowey undertale shit right there. Worth the 40 minutes”


Updated Apr 25, 2022 – Some clarifications and small changes
Updated Oct 13, 2022 – Embedded video

If I look back I am lost: The Corruption of a Conscience

Video versions:

YouTube: P1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PR3f97asZI
Bitchute: P1 https://www.bitchute.com/video/cmlT0W8RHglX/
WordPress Embed: P1

I was reading Dany’s chapter in AGOT when she finds out that Mirri Maz Duur tricked her, and I was struck by a few lines.

Dany turned to the godswife. “You warned me that only death could pay for life. I thought you meant the horse.”

“No,” Mirri Maz Duur said. “That was a lie you told yourself. You knew the price.”

Had she? Had she? If I look back I am lost. “The price was paid,” Dany said. “The horse, my child, Quaro and Qotho, Haggo and Cohollo. The price was paid and paid and paid.” She rose from her cushions. “Where is Khal Drogo? Show him to me, godswife, maegi, bloodmage, whatever you are. Show me Khal Drogo. Show me what I bought with my son’s life.”

“As you command, Khaleesi,” the old woman said. “Come, I will take you to him.” (AGOT Daenerys IX)

Had she? Had Dany known that the price of bloodmagic was going to include the death of her unborn baby?

It seems like a pointless question in some ways. What difference does it make if Dany knew or didn’t know? Well, come with me on this journey and I’ll show you how that question and questions like it are helping me make sense of things in Dany’s story that have always puzzled me.

Taking Mirri Seriously

Many of Dany’s reactions suggest that Dany wasn’t expecting her baby to die at all. As she points out, the slaughtering of Drogo’s horse seemed like the ritualistic fulfillment of death paying for life. Why shouldn’t the death of an animal suffice? And why shouldn’t one death? Dany hasn’t been taught the ways of bloodmagic, so she isn’t qualified to question how it works. As far as Dany can tell, Mirri’s actions match her words and her words do not seem to leave space for any unspoken fine-print.

Mirri accuses Dany of lying to herself, which is an interesting thing to accuse somebody of doing. It raises a few questions itself. If I were Dany I might ask these questions to Mirri.

  1. Why would I lie to myself?

  2. What exactly is the lie?

  3. And how the fuck do you know?

I think we have enough information to make a fair attempt at answering the second question. Maybe the lie is something like: “The horse is the whole price” or “My baby is not part of the price” or even more generally, “Everything will be okay.”

Let’s tackle the third question. If we adopt the relativity with which the story was written, (that the POVs of non-POV characters matter) then it’s possible that Mirri’s point of view is more valid than Dany’s point of view. Supposing that it is, then how would Mirri know when Dany is lying to herself?

One way that Mirri might be able to know is described to Arya by the Kindly Man in Braavos.

“I don’t whisper any names,” she said.

“You lie,” he said. “All men lie when they are afraid. Some tell many lies, some but a few. Some have only one great lie they tell so often that they almost come to believe it . . . though some small part of them will always know that it is still a lie, and that will show upon their faces. Tell me of these names.” (AFFC Arya II)

So maybe a lie was evident in Dany’s face or in her body language. Let’s visit the scene before this, when Dany gave Mirri permission to do the bloodmagic, and we’ll watch carefully for Dany’s expressions and body language.

“Is there no other way?”

“No other.”

Khal Drogo gave a shuddering gasp.

“Do it,” Dany blurted. She must not be afraid; she was the blood of the dragon. “Save him.”

“There is a price,” the godswife warned her.

“You’ll have gold, horses, whatever you like.”

“It is not a matter of gold or horses. This is bloodmagic, lady. Only death may pay for life.”

“Death?” Dany wrapped her arms around herself protectively, rocked back and forth on her heels. “My death?” She told herself she would die for him, if she must. She was the blood of the dragon, she would not be afraid. Her brother Rhaegar had died for the woman he loved.

“No,” Mirri Maz Duur promised. “Not your death, Khaleesi.”

Dany trembled with relief. “Do it.”

The maegi nodded solemnly. “As you speak, so it shall be done. Call your servants.” (AGOT Daenerys VIII)

As soon as the price of death is mentioned, Dany wraps her arms around her pregnant belly protectively. This body language might indicate to us and to Mirri that Dany knows or suspects that the real price of bloodmagic will be her baby.

But Dany does this thing with her arms all the time. Maybe it doesn’t mean anything at all. We have to investigate this body language to find out.

And That Will Show Upon Their Faces

The first instance of Dany making this gesture is at the Dothraki naming ritual.

The one-eyed crone peered at Dany. “What shall he be called, the stallion who mounts the world?”

She stood to answer. “He shall be called Rhaego,” she said, using the words that Jhiqui had taught her. Her hands touched the swell beneath her breasts protectively as a roar went up from the Dothraki. “Rhaego,” they screamed. “Rhaego, Rhaego, Rhaego!” (AGOT Daenerys V)

Dany has just successfully eaten the heart of a horse, without vomiting, in front of an audience of captivated Dothraki. The roar of the Dothraki seems to startle her, and her first instinct is to touch her swollen belly to protect her baby.

Viserys laughed. “They can’t kill us. They can’t shed blood here in the sacred city . . . but I can.” He laid the point of his sword between Daenerys’s breasts and slid it downward, over the curve of her belly. “I want what I came for,” he told her. “I want the crown he promised me. He bought you, but he never paid for you. Tell him I want what I bargained for, or I’m taking you back. You and the eggs both. He can keep his bloody foal. I’ll cut the bastard out and leave it for him.” The sword point pushed through her silks and pricked at her navel. (AGOT Daenerys V)

At the feast, Viserys draws a sword on his sister and slides the blade over her pregnant belly. He presses it against her stomach and verbally threatens to kill the baby.

Viserys began to scream the high, wordless scream of the coward facing death. He kicked and twisted, whimpered like a dog and wept like a child, but the Dothraki held him tight between them. Ser Jorah had made his way to Dany’s side. He put a hand on her shoulder. “Turn away, my princess, I beg you.”

“No.” She folded her arms across the swell of her belly, protectively.

At the last, Viserys looked at her. “Sister, please … Dany, tell them … make them … sweet sister …” (AGOT Daenerys V)

Just before Viserys is gruesomely executed, Dany insists upon watching him die. She folds her arms across the swell of her belly protectively. I think the threat against her baby triggers a protective instinct in Dany, and it’s a big part of the reason that she has no problem allowing her brother to die in that moment and in that way, even though that decision seems to trouble her conscience later on.

That was the saddest thing, the thing that tore at her afterward … the way he smiled. (AGOT Daenerys V)

At Vaes Dothrak, a wine merchant tried to assassinate Dany using poisoned wine.

“My brother?” Her sob was half a laugh. “He does not know yet, does he? The Usurper owes Drogo a lordship.” This time her laugh was half a sob. She hugged herself protectively. “And me, you said. Only me?”

“You and the child,” Ser Jorah said, grim.

“No. He cannot have my son.” She would not weep, she decided. She would not shiver with fear. The Usurper has woken the dragon now, she told herself … and her eyes went to the dragon’s eggs resting in their nest of dark velvet. (AGOT Daenerys VI)

Jorah tells Dany that the assassination is in response to a bounty that has been placed on her and her brother’s lives by Robert Baratheon. Dany seems to already suspect that her baby is part of the bounty too, because she asks “Only me?” She crosses her arms out of instinct to protect her baby from a threat that she has already imagined. Jorah confirms the threat, and Dany’s personality understandably changes to that of a ruthlessly protective mother.

As Khal Drogo lay dying, Jorah warns Dany about the urgency of the situation. They have to flee from the Dothraki before the king dies, or else Dany and her baby will be in danger.

“Khal Drogo commanded them to keep me safe,” Dany replied uncertainly, “but if he dies …” She touched the swell of her belly. “I don’t understand. Why should we flee? I am khaleesi. I carry Drogo’s heir. He will be khal after Drogo …”

Ser Jorah frowned. “Princess, hear me. The Dothraki will not follow a suckling babe. Drogo’s strength was what they bowed to, and only that. When he is gone, Jhaqo and Pono and the other kos will fight for his place, and this khalasar will devour itself. The winner will want no more rivals. The boy will be taken from your breast the moment he is born. They will give him to the dogs …” (AGOT Daenerys VIII)

Even before Jorah explains the situation to her, her body language shows me that she already understands the situation. She touches her swollen belly out of instinct for fear of a threat to her baby that she has just identified. Jorah dutifully speaks the truth of the situation—a truth that perhaps she was afraid to acknowledge.

“You will die, maegi,” Qotho promised, “but the other must die first.” He drew his arakh and made for the tent.

“No,” she shouted, “you mustn’t.” She caught him by the shoulder, but Qotho shoved her aside. Dany fell to her knees, crossing her arms over her belly to protect the child within. “Stop him,” she commanded her khas, “kill him.” (AGOT Daenerys VIII)

Having now agreed to go through with the bloodmagic, most of the Dothraki are turning against Dany. Qotho promises to kill Dany after he kills Mirri, and things start to get physical. Dany crosses her arms to protect her baby again, perhaps remembering Jorah’s warning from earlier.

In every situation in which Dany crosses her arms over her belly protectively, there is a threat to her baby that she has identified. So when Dany does this protective motion for the final time in front of Mirri Maz Duur, we have the tools available to help us answer that haunting question during Dany’s moment of cognitive dissonance. “Had she?” Had she known that the price of bloodmagic would include her unborn baby?

Dany turned to the godswife. “You warned me that only death could pay for life. I thought you meant the horse.”

“No,” Mirri Maz Duur said. “That was a lie you told yourself. You knew the price.”

Had she? Had she? If I look back I am lost. (1)

[[ At the end of one journey, I find myself at the beginning of the next. Mirri may have just provided us with the definition of a phrase that Dany repeats to herself all throughout the series. Maybe whenever Dany thinks “If I look back I am lost“, it means she is lying to herself. ]]

If I Look Back I Am Lost

Dany’s scene with Mirri is the first time the phrase appears in the books. There are twelve (12) total, as of ADWD.

  • 4 AGOT Daenerys IX

  • 2 AGOT Daenerys X

  • 1 ASOS Daenerys III

  • 1 ADWD Daenerys VI

  • 2 ADWD Daenerys VIII

  • 2 ADWD Daenerys X

We can go through each one and test Mirri’s words to see if they work as a definition. Let’s try to identify the lie Dany is telling herself, or the truth she is avoiding.

Eroeh

On the Dothraki sea, Drogo’s khalasar has conquered a Lhazareen village.

Across the road, a girl no older than Dany was sobbing in a high thin voice as a rider shoved her over a pile of corpses, facedown, and thrust himself inside her. Other riders dismounted to take their turns. That was the sort of deliverance the Dothraki brought the Lamb Men.

I am the blood of the dragon, Daenerys Targaryen reminded herself as she turned her face away. She pressed her lips together and hardened her heart and rode on toward the gate.

The girl is the same age as Dany, about thirteen, and I think Dany sees some of herself in Eroeh. Remember, Dany has had her own traumatic experience with rape, or something very much like it.

She would kill herself rather than go on, she decided one night … (AGOT Daenerys III)

[[ I am the blood of the dragon seems to be a mantra that Dany uses throughout the story to harden her heart. I think she’s practicing stoicism. On a spectrum that ranges from idealism to stoicism, let’s be mindful of how Dany’s position on that spectrum changes over time.

Stoicism – That people should be free from passion, unmoved by joy or grief, and submit without complaint to unavoidable necessity. ]]

Dany is faced with the dilemma of whether or not to rescue Eroeh. She has to balance the threats that each decision would pose. Perhaps on one hand is the question, “Will helping the girl cause me unbearable suffering from my environment?” Her environment includes the Dothraki culture, her Dothraki husband, her reputation and status as khaleesi. And perhaps on the other hand is the question, “Will ignoring the girl cause me unbearable suffering from my conscience?” Whatever she decides, she has to live with the decision. Both threats are very real and I think she needs to walk a middle path.

Behind them, the girl being raped made a heartrending sound, a long sobbing wail that went on and on and on. Dany’s hand clenched hard around the reins, and she turned the silver’s head. “Make them stop,” she commanded Ser Jorah.

“Khaleesi?” The knight sounded perplexed.

“You heard my words,” she said. “Stop them.” She spoke to her khas in the harsh accents of Dothraki. “Jhogo, Quaro, you will aid Ser Jorah. I want no rape.”

The warriors exchanged a baffled look.

Jorah Mormont spurred his horse closer. “Princess,” he said, “you have a gentle heart, but you do not understand. This is how it has always been. Those men have shed blood for the khal. Now they claim their reward.”

Across the road, the girl was still crying, her high singsong tongue strange to Dany’s ears. The first man was done with her now, and a second had taken his place. (AGOT Daenerys VII)

Dany is rescuing Eroeh from a brutal fate, but the Dothraki don’t see it that way. The right to take slaves, to rape and murder them, is considered a traditional part of the spoils of Dothraki conquest. It’s their reward for risking their lives on behalf of their king. Without those rewards, whatever semblance of order exists in Dothraki culture might fall apart.

Dany rescues the girl from Mago and the other Dothraki.

“You are your brother’s sister, in truth.”

“Viserys?” She did not understand.

“No,” he answered. “Rhaegar.” He galloped off.

Jorah encourages Dany’s decision, in contradiction with the counsel he gave her. It is an admirable thing she has done, to the extent that compassion and bravery are admirable. But more admirable will be if she can successfully manage the risks that come with her decision.

They passed other women being raped. Each time Dany reined up, sent her khas to make an end to it, and claimed the victim as slave.

As if in response to Jorah’s encouragement, Dany rescues several more Lhazareen, robbing many more Dothraki of their rights.

“You cannot claim them all, child,” Ser Jorah said, the fourth time they stopped, while the warriors of her khas herded her new slaves behind her.

“I am khaleesi, heir to the Seven Kingdoms, the blood of the dragon,” Dany reminded him. “It is not for you to tell me what I cannot do.”

If rescuing one slave has earned her the title of “Rhaegar,” then Dany seems to be aiming for “Baelor the Blessed.” The risks are building up, one slave at a time, and the culmination of those risks is foreshadowed at a tense trial when Mago brings his complaints to Khal Drogo.

Dany turned on him angrily. “The dragon feeds on horse and sheep alike.”

Khal Drogo smiled. “See how fierce she grows!” he said. “It is my son inside her, the stallion who mounts the world, filling her with his fire. Ride slowly, Qotho . . . if the mother does not burn you where you sit, the son will trample you into the mud. And you, Mago, hold your tongue and find another lamb to mount. These belong to my khaleesi.”

The Khal rules in favor of Dany. The issue with Mago seems to be finished, but the issue of the Dothraki war custom seems to be ignored. Rape has not been outlawed, but Dany gets to keep her stolen slaves.

After Khal Drogo dies, the Dothraki abandon Dany and take her slaves.

“They took Khal Drogo’s herds, Khaleesi,” Rakharo said. “We were too few to stop them. It is the right of the strong to take from the weak. They took many slaves as well, the khal’s and yours, yet they left some few.”

“Eroeh?” asked Dany, remembering the frightened child she had saved outside the city of the Lamb Men.

“Mago seized her, who is Khal Jhaqo’s bloodrider now,” said Jhogo. “He mounted her high and low and gave her to his khal, and Jhaqo gave her to his other bloodriders. They were six. When they were done with her, they cut her throat.”

“It was her fate, Khaleesi,” said Aggo.

If I look back I am lost. (2) “It was a cruel fate,” Dany said, “yet not so cruel as Mago’s will be. I promise you that, by the old gods and the new, by the lamb god and the horse god and every god that lives. I swear it by the Mother of Mountains and the Womb of the World. Before I am done with them, Mago and Ko Jhaqo will plead for the mercy they showed Eroeh.” (AGOT Daenerys IX)

Dany asks about Eroeh and learns that Mago has taken his spoils after all. He has amplified the girl’s suffering before killing her, perhaps to spite her rescuer and to reaffirm the long-held Dothraki tradition. The event even seems to reaffirm those beliefs in Aggo, one of the few Dothraki who remain loyal to Dany.

“It was her fate, Khaleesi,” said Aggo.

Dany is struggling with the harsh realization that, despite her best intentions, she could not save Eroeh from her brutal fate. Moreover, Eroeh’s fate may have been less brutal if Dany had not intervened in Eroeh’s life at all. Perhaps the truth Dany is avoiding is along the line of: “Eroeh would have suffered the same or less without me.” Or maybe more fundamentally, “There is something wrong with the way I wield compassion.” Not to jump ahead, but Dany eventually expresses this recurring plight in A Storm of Swords, when she learns of the events at Astapor:

All my victories turn to dross in my hands, she thought. Whatever I do, all I make is death and horror. (ASOS Daenerys VI)

In a moment of impulse, Dany tried to outlaw a Dothraki custom that has existed for a long time. A cultural change of that magnitude might rightly take a lifetime to accomplish. A ruler has to choose her battles wisely. I don’t think it was necessarily a mistake to rescue Eroeh, but maybe there was a way to save Eroeh and appease the insulted Dothraki at the same time. As unwelcome a thought as it is, it’s worth considering that not rescuing Eroeh was the lesser of two evils. That challenge is a threat to Dany because it strikes at the heart of her compassionate nature. The threat Dany feels from that challenge is proportionate to the magnitude of the systems in her that it would modify.

[[ While the short term consequences of rescuing Eroeh seemed to improve the world, the long term consequences did not. The results of the Eroeh experiment stand in Dany’s memory, forever in contradiction to her understanding of the world. The results say “You’re wrong about the world and how to behave in it. Those deeds are permanently part of your past. And your past is permanently tied up in your identity.”

What can Dany possibly say against a criticism like that? It’s no wonder why she develops this mantra to cope. If I look back I am lost. That phrase says to me that Dany recognizes that there is no way to undo what she has already done, and that she believes she must continue forward in the same manner that she has done, lest new patterns of behavior contradict the old ones and re-frame her past deeds as unbearable mistakes.

On the idealistic-stoic spectrum, I think the Eroeh situation demonstrates that Dany is on the far end of idealism. She has a vision for a better world, perhaps one where people aren’t raped, murdered and enslaved, but she doesn’t have a good plan for how to realize that vision. However, her thoughts indicate that she’s aware that stoicism is necessary.

Slaves, Dany thought. Khal Drogo would drive them downriver to one of the towns on Slaver’s Bay. She wanted to cry, but she told herself that she must be strong. This is war, this is what it looks like, this is the price of the Iron Throne. (AGOT Daenerys VII)

Dany recognizes the value in separating her emotions from her decision-making in service of a greater good, but she doesn’t seem to have incorporated that knowledge yet. Her approach was not sophisticated enough to affect meaningful, lasting change.

“I want no rape.” ]]

Bloodmagic

“You knew,” Dany said when they were gone. She ached, inside and out, but her fury gave her strength. “You knew what I was buying, and you knew the price, and yet you let me pay it.”

“It was wrong of them to burn my temple,” the heavy, flat-nosed woman said placidly. “That angered the Great Shepherd.”

“This was no god’s work,” Dany said coldly. If I look back I am lost. (3) “You cheated me. You murdered my child within me.”

“The stallion who mounts the world will burn no cities now. His khalasar shall trample no nations into dust.” (AGOT Daenerys IX)

With the line “you let me pay it”, Dany acknowledges her involvement in Rhaego’s death. As much as she would like to lay the blame wholly upon Mirri, Dany thinks of her mantra, which tells me that she knows it would be a lie to blame Rhaego’s death wholly on Mirri. Still, she does it anyway.

“You cheated me. You murdered my child within me.”

Dany’s use of the phrase If I look back I am lost is evolving. It says “There is some difficult error in my past that I can’t bear to address, therefore I will avoid the painful process of addressing it and move forward.” She is abbreviating that whole logical process to its conclusion: “move forward”. It helps her cope by rewriting the call to action. A call that once said “address the errors of the past” now says “pay attention to the future.” The lie she is telling herself is nested in the conclusion: You don’t need to address the errors of the past.

[[ The fiery elements in Daenerys’s story are present at a psychological level. Like a forest fire, Dany will not turn around to revisit something she has already done. By its nature, the only direction a fire can move is forward, and destructively. ]]

Mirri has told Dany that Drogo will be as he was when the sun rises in the west and sets in the east, among other seemingly impossible events. Dany interprets Mirri’s words to mean that Drogo will never recover.

Never, the darkness cried, never never never.

Inside the tent Dany found a cushion, soft silk stuffed with feathers. She clutched it to her breasts as she walked back out to Drogo, to her sun-and-stars. If I look back I am lost. (4) It hurt even to walk, and she wanted to sleep, to sleep and not to dream.

She knelt, kissed Drogo on the lips, and pressed the cushion down across his face.

Dany is using the phrase to make herself go forward, to do the most difficult thing she has ever had to do. I think part of what makes it so difficult is the truth that lives in her past. She disregarded the Dothraki warnings about maegi and bloodmagic. In no small part, Dany is the cause of her own suffering.

“Khaleesi,” he said hesitantly, “this is not done. It would shame me, to be bloodrider to a woman.”

“Aggo,” Dany called, paying no heed to Jhogo’s words. If I look back I am lost. (5) “To you I give the dragonbone bow that was my bride gift.” It was double-curved, shiny black and exquisite, taller than she was. “I name you ko, and ask your oath, that you should live and die as blood of my blood, riding at my side to keep me safe from harm.”

Aggo accepted the bow with lowered eyes. “I cannot say these words. Only a man can lead a khalasar or name a ko.” (AGOT Daenerys X)

Dany gives away her valuable belongings before she apparently attempts suicide in the pyre. The Dothraki reject her words due to their cultural beliefs. Dany is running afoul of Dothraki culture again, but I think she’s conscious of it. The placement of her mantra leads me to believe that she’s looking back on the previous times she disregarded Dothraki beliefs, such as those involving rape and bloodmagic, and she’s making a conscious choice to disregard them again on the matter of a female ruler.

But why? Disregarding Dothraki beliefs hasn’t worked out well for her, so why deliberately repeat the mistake? I think there are two forces at play in Dany, and neither of them have much to do with the discriminatory belief itself.

One force is that she feels as though a new pattern of behavior would re-frame her past decisions as unbearable mistakes. Her pattern is that, in every case, she has acted on passion.

Passion – Any powerful or compelling emotion or feeling, as love or hate.

Remember, Dany meant to ignore Eroeh until the girl’s screams pierced Dany’s stoic veneer.

I am the blood of the dragon, Daenerys Targaryen reminded herself as she turned her face away. She pressed her lips together and hardened her heart and rode on toward the gate.

Love is another kind of passion, and I think Dany’s love for Drogo is what tempted her toward bloodmagic.

She told herself she would die for him, if she must.

Vengeance is a passion. I think revenge played a role in Dany during the executions of Viserys, the wineseller and now Mirri.

He was no dragon, Dany thought, curiously calm. Fire cannot kill a dragon.

At Drogo’s funeral pyre, Dany is acting on passion again, which brings me to the other force at play in Dany.

Dany half believes she will survive the pyre.

“Please, Khaleesi. I know what you intend. Do not. Do not.”

“I must,” Dany told him. She touched his face, fondly, sadly. “You do not understand.”

“I understand that you loved him,” Ser Jorah said in a voice thick with despair. “I loved my lady wife once, yet I did not die with her. You are my queen, my sword is yours, but do not ask me to stand aside as you climb on Drogo’s pyre. I will not watch you burn.”

“Is that what you fear?” Dany kissed him lightly on his broad forehead. “I am not such a child as that, sweet ser.”

“You do not mean to die with him? You swear it, my queen?”

“I swear it,” she said in the Common Tongue of the Seven Kingdoms that by rights were hers.

There are a number of things to which we could credit Dany’s confidence that she will survive the pyre. Maybe it was one of her dreams. Maybe Dany has gathered enough evidence of her heat resistance.

“You do not understand.”

We may never know for sure what is prompting Dany’s confidence, but whatever the reason, it seems to be rooted in instinct.

She could feel the eyes of the khalasar on her as she entered her tent. The Dothraki were muttering and giving her strange sideways looks from the corners of their dark almond eyes. They thought her mad, Dany realized. Perhaps she was. She would know soon enough. If I look back I am lost. (6)

While Dany’s words demonstrate confidence that she will survive the pyre, her thoughts here reveal her uncertainty. She is suicidal, which is a synonym of “mad” in this setting.

I think the reason she disregards another Dothraki belief can be found in the interplay between those two forces. On one hand, her instincts may prove reliable and she will survive the pyre. On the other hand, this is the lowest point in her life so far. Maybe some part of her does not terribly mind if she dies in the pyre. There is a sense that this is an act of both hopelessness and faith. Maybe she is thinking: If my passionate way-of-being is as unfit for this world as it seems to be, then I would prefer not to be part of this world anymore. But if this ultimate act of passion is successful in some way, then it will reaffirm my passionate way-of-being and reveal a path where it is fit.

[[ She’s giving this cruel and unfair world an ultimatum. It’s a feeble thing to do. But Dany’s bargain with the universe pays off. It earns her the undying loyalty of the remaining Dothraki who, as a rule, would not otherwise have followed a female ruler. A path forward has been revealed in a way that did not require Dany to address or adjust for her past mistakes of disregarding Dothraki beliefs. It only required her to muster more passion.

This doubling-down on her unaddressed mistakes becomes a regular thing with her, as does her disregard for Dothraki superstition. I think the Dothraki occupy a wise-fool role in Dany’s story. ]]

Astapor

Tomorrow is the big day that Dany will trade Drogon for an army of Unsullied. Her plan to conquer the city hasn’t been revealed to the reader yet, but there are clues along the way. Chief among them, I think, is the way Dany spends her time on the eve of the trade.

“When you are … when you are done with them … Your Grace might command them to fall upon their swords.”

“And even that, they would do?” (ASOS Daenerys III)

Dany seeks to learn more about the Unsullied from Missandei, to ensure that her orders to turn the Unsullied against the people of Astapor will be obeyed without hesitation.

She meant to sleep afterward, to be well rested for the morrow, but an hour of restless tossing in the stuffy confines of the cabin soon convinced her that was hopeless. Outside her door she found Aggo fitting a new string to his bow by the light of a swinging oil lamp. Rakharo sat crosslegged on the deck beside him, sharpening his arakh with a whetstone.

On the ship, Dany sees Aggo and Rakharo tending to the maintenance of the weapons she gave them so long ago, the night she stepped into the pyre.

[[ Dany is being very secretive in this chapter, and the secret is withheld from the reader until the moment the battle begins. Because of the secrecy, her thoughts, words and actions seem disconnected. We’re meant to imply Dany’s thoughts (and the connections between them) from her perceptions. In this story, written entirely from a first-person point of view, thoughts and perceptions are the same thing. The sight of Aggo and Rakharo with their weapons suggests that Dany’s mind is on the events at Drogo’s pyre. ]]

So what is it about Drogo’s pyre that relates to Dany’s current worries? Dany is hours away from deliberately committing a risky act of passion, much like she did at the pyre.

Dany’s passion is directed at the topics she is exploring on this evening. One object of her passion is the Unsullied, whose suffering she researched through Missandei. I think another object of her passion comes up in the next conversation. They are the people responsible for that suffering. Masters, rulers, kings and queens, they are all those people who occupy positions of power. Even a king brother.

“Do you remember Eroeh?” she asked him.

“The Lhazareen girl?”

“They were raping her, but I stopped them and took her under my protection. Only when my sun-and-stars was dead Mago took her back, used her again, and killed her. Aggo said it was her fate.”

“I remember,” Ser Jorah said.

“I was alone for a long time, Jorah. All alone but for my brother. I was such a small scared thing. Viserys should have protected me, but instead he hurt me and scared me worse. He shouldn’t have done that. He wasn’t just my brother, he was my king. Why do the gods make kings and queens, if not to protect the ones who can’t protect themselves?”

“Some kings make themselves. Robert did.”

“He was no true king,” Dany said scornfully. “He did no justice. Justice … that’s what kings are for.”

Dany is working her way through some complicated issues about kings and justice. She is testing her ideas on Jorah, who is being a good listener. Dany’s stress on the last word suggests to me that Dany is uncertain and/or wishful along these lines:

  • She can’t find anything wrong with the idea.

  • She wants to believe the idea is true.

  • She’s trying to convince herself the idea is true.

  • She’s trying to make it true by saying it out loud.

  • She’s uncertain that it’s true/complete.

I think this rationale helps her justify her plan for Astapor. I don’t see anything wrong with the idea either, for what it’s worth. Justice might be the most important role of a ruler. But I’m worried that her experiences haven’t given her good ideas about what justice is, what it isn’t, or how it should be done.

Dany is haunted by the Eroeh event, perhaps still searching for what it means and what she should have done differently. As if in conclusion, Dany remembers the cruelty of Viserys and that he failed to protect her. What is the role of a ruler, if not to protect the weak? Despite Eroeh’s tragic end, Dany is justifying her attempt to rescue Eroeh. She is still unable to find an error in her past decisions.

[[ Having now justified three acts of passion—the pyre, Eroeh, Viserys—I think this has helped Dany justify what she is about to do to Astapor. In this passage, I think we have just witnessed the moment when Dany incorporates her past deeds into her way-of-being. Her unaddressed mistakes of the past are now baked into the recipe of a dish she calls justice. There are dangers with passion in matters of justice. The nuances of those dangers, such as the temptations of compassion and revenge, are not accessible with this understanding of justice. Dany has set herself up to make decisions in the name of queenly duty that are based on precedents set by her past decisions, which are contaminated by misguided passion. ]]

That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper’s rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted. This is how it was meant to be. The other was a nightmare, and I have only now awakened.

In her dream, Dany exults in defeating her enemies with dragonfire. It’s a dream shrouded in symbolism and metaphor, so I don’t know what it means with respect to foreshadowing and prophecy. But I think an important take-away for Dany’s character development is the last part. In life, Dany feels as though she is living in a nightmare.

“Remember. To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward you must go back, and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow.”

Quaithe visits Dany in the darkness of the cabin and she offers Dany the same cryptic advice that she first offered in Qarth. It isn’t clear what it means, but I think we’re close to understanding one part of it. To go forward you must go back, but going back is something a fire cannot do. Perhaps a fair rewrite of this line is: In order to go forward in a manner that is not self-destructive, Dany needs to go back to those events in her past that haunt her, and find the lessons.

[[ She needs to go back to the Eroeh event and figure out that there were more paths available than the two she was unable to reconcile. Perhaps rescuing Eroeh would have ended differently if Dany had not tried to rescue so many other people at the same time, or if she had made peace with Mago. If it’s true that Viserys needed to die, maybe his death should not have been so gruesome.

In the future, Dany’s use of these precedents will cause her to more readily repeat the same mistakes of overreaching with her compassion and being unconcerned with the amount of suffering caused by execution. ]]

If I look back I am lost, (7) Dany told herself the next morning as she entered Astapor through the harbor gates. She dared not remind herself how small and insignificant her following truly was, or she would lose all courage. Today she rode her silver, clad in horsehair pants and painted leather vest, a bronze medallion belt about her waist and two more crossed between her breasts. Irri and Jhiqui had braided her hair and hung it with a tiny silver bell whose chime sang of the Undying of Qarth, burned in their Palace of Dust. (ASOS Daenerys III)

Across all the lies that Dany might tell herself, there is something in common. I think that commonality is the fundamental lie that Dany is acting out whenever this mantra comes up. You don’t need to address the errors of your past.

Dany has dressed for battle.

On the road through Astapor, Dany’s internal conflict manifests in her environment in the following two scenes.

The river’s banks were strangely tranquil. The Worm, the Astapori called the stream. It was wide and slow and crooked, dotted with tiny wooded islands. She glimpsed children playing on one of them, darting amongst elegant marble statues. On another island two lovers kissed in the shade of tall green trees, with no more shame than Dothraki at a wedding. Without clothing, she could not tell if they were slave or free.

The humanity of the Astapori is on full display today, or perhaps Dany is just more apt to notice it on this day in particular. Children run and play, not unlike how Dany used to run and play at the house with the red door. Two lovers kiss in the nude beneath the open sky without shame, reminiscent of the night Dany and Drogo wed. Stripped of clothing, the couple highlights the limitations of man-made judgements, perhaps weakening Dany’s resolve.

Then she rode her silver nearer and saw the raw red flesh beneath the crawling black stripes. Flies. Flies and maggots. The rebellious slaves had been peeled like a man might peel an apple, in a long curling strip. One man had an arm black with flies from fingers to elbow, and red and white beneath. Dany reined in beneath him. “What did this one do?”

“He raised a hand against his owner.”

Her stomach roiling, Dany wheeled her silver about and trotted toward the center of the plaza, and the army she had bought so dear.

An encounter with horrendously mutilated slaves strengthens her resolve again, the final course-adjustment.

Meereen

It has been half a year since Dany’s conquest of Astapor. In that time, she has conquered Yunkai, conquered Meereen, crucified 163 Great Masters of Meereen, and covered up Hazzea’s burning.

Dany stiffened. “I left a council to rule Astapor. A healer, a scholar, and a priest.”

“Your Worship, those sly rogues betrayed your trust. It was revealed that they were scheming to restore the Good Masters to power and the people to chains. Great Cleon exposed their plots and hacked their heads off with a cleaver, and the grateful folk of Astapor have crowned him for his valor.”

The rulers that Dany left in place at Astapor seem to have encountered the same difficulties that Dany encountered with the Dothraki. Those are difficulties associated with an abrupt, forced, massive change to their customs and values. Those values were foundational to the social, political and economic systems that kept things orderly, even if corrupt.

“The city bleeds. Dead men rot unburied in the streets, each pyramid is an armed camp, and the markets have neither food nor slaves for sale. And the poor children! King Cleaver’s thugs have seized every highborn boy in Astapor to make new Unsullied for the trade, though it will be years before they are trained.”

The thing that surprised Dany most was how unsurprised she was. She found herself remembering Eroeh, the Lhazarene girl she had once tried to protect, and what had happened to her. It will be the same in Meereen once I march, she thought.

In the face of unbearable disorder, maybe the council of Astapor thought it was necessary to reestablish order using the structures that existed before Dany arrived. Cleon overthrew Dany’s council for reinstating slavery, but it seems even Cleon could not find a way to establish order without reinstating slavery too.

Dany used to believe the world works in such a way that everyone can be saved. That was evident in Lhazar. Her pessimistic thoughts here suggest to me that her ideal has been decayed by her experiences. She’s coming to accept the idea that the world is just a terrible place. The normalization of terror relieves her of the responsibility to address those terrors, and thus her involvement in creating them. In the future, Dany will more easily categorize terrible things as commonplace and necessary.

“I warned your king that this war of his was folly,” Dany reminded him. “He would not listen.”

“Great Cleon sought only to strike down the vile slavers of Yunkai.”

“Great Cleon is a slaver himself.”

“I know that the Mother of Dragons will not abandon us in our hour of peril. Lend us your Unsullied to defend our walls.”

And if I do, who will defend my walls? “Many of my freedmen were slaves in Astapor. Perhaps some will wish to help defend your king. That is their choice, as free men. I gave Astapor its freedom. It is up to you to defend it.”

“We are all dead, then. You gave us death, not freedom.” Ghael leapt to his feet and spat into her face. (ADWD Daenerys III)

The people who believed in Dany the most are suffering the most, but Dany’s hands are clean, aren’t they? She did her part. She freed the slaves. She gave them the “right” values—slavery is bad—and now it’s their job to figure out how to use those new values in a way that produces more order than chaos.

Dany has doled out freedom haphazardly without an adequate understanding of the ancient systems she has demolished, and without a sufficiently sophisticated plan for the transition from one set of values to another.

Skeletal women sat upon the ground clutching dying infants. Their eyes followed her. Those who had the strength called out. “Mother … please, Mother … bless you, Mother …”

Bless me, Dany thought bitterly. Your city is gone to ash and bone, your people are dying all around you. I have no shelter for you, no medicine, no hope. Only stale bread and wormy meat, hard cheese, a little milk. Bless me, bless me.

The Astapori truly believe in Dany’s cause, but I get the impression that their devotion has to do with the fact that they have nowhere else to go. Now they camp outside the walls of Meereen as a ghastly sickness known as the pale mare gallops over them.

“Go if you wish, ser. I will not detain you. I will not detain any of you.” Dany vaulted down from the horse. “I cannot heal them, but I can show them that their Mother cares.” (ADWD Daenerys VI)

Nobody wants to deliver food to the Astapori for fear of catching the sickness themselves. Dany delivers the food herself and the sight of suffering moves her. In a commendable act of benevolence, Dany devotes the day to helping the Astapori, at great risk to herself and her guards, and she inspires her guards and councilors to do the same. They separate the living from the dead, they wash the living, they stack and burn a dozen piles of bodies.

Dany can’t invite the sickly Astapori into the city or else they will infect everyone else, but her enemies are on the march and they will arrive at the gates of Meereen soon. These helpless Astapori are completely exposed.

“Please,” Dany said, but only Missandei seemed to hear. The queen got to her feet. “Be quiet! I have heard enough.”

“Your Grace.” Ser Barristan went to one knee. “We are yours to command. What would you have us do?”

“Continue as we planned. Gather food, as much as you can.” If I look back I am lost. (8)

“We must close the gates and put every fighting man upon the walls. No one enters, no one leaves.”

The hall was quiet for a moment. The men looked at one another. Then Reznak said, “What of the Astapori?”

She wanted to scream, to gnash her teeth and tear her clothes and beat upon the floor. Instead she said, “Close the gates. Will you make me say it thrice?” They were her children, but she could not help them now. (ADWD Daenerys VI)

With the gates closed, the people who followed Dany from Astapor are left to starve, to be slaughtered, and re-enslaved by the Yunkai’i. It’s a painful and frustrating choice because it doesn’t feel like she has a choice at all. It is probably made more painful by the time she spent with them.

[[ Dany’s past choices have led to this situation. As the mistakes of her past pile up, so do the parts of her way-of-being that need to be modified. The threat of addressing the past continues to grow. With her past unaddressed, Dany has set a new precedent for a “price” that, though unacceptable, is one that she will be able to say that she has paid once before. ]]

So Daenerys sat silent through the meal, wrapped in a vermilion tokar and black thoughts, speaking only when spoken to, brooding on the men and women being bought and sold outside her walls, even as they feasted here within the city. Let her noble husband make the speeches and laugh at the feeble Yunkish japes. That was a king’s right and a king’s duty.

Much of the talk about the table was of the matches to be fought upon the morrow. Barsena Blackhair was going to face a boar, his tusks against her dagger. Khrazz was fighting, as was the Spotted Cat. And in the day’s final pairing, Goghor the Giant would go against Belaquo Bonebreaker. One would be dead before the sun went down. No queen has clean hands, Dany told herself. She thought of Doreah, of Quaro, of Eroeh … of a little girl she had never met, whose name had been Hazzea. Better a few should die in the pit than thousands at the gates. This is the price of peace, I pay it willingly. If I look back, I am lost. (9)

Dany’s intention with the phrase has just inverted. Dany has used the phrase to avoid the truth and to compel herself to act on passion, but from here on out, she uses the phrase to suppress her passion in favor of stoicism. Her transition from maximally idealistic to maximally stoic is complete.

Why did Dany’s use of the phrase invert? Because her options have narrowed to a point that she doesn’t have a choice in what to do anymore. She cannot find a path forward that doesn’t require her to adjust her way-of-being. Doubling down on passion won’t work in these situations. She’s forced to weigh the lives of the sick Astapori against the lives of everyone in the city, in contradiction with her “Everyone can be saved” ideal. She’s forced to weigh her marriage to Hizdhar against the lives of everyone in the city, in contradiction with her heart’s desire. She’s forced to open the fighting pit as part of the agreement, in contradiction with her anti-slavery values.

Dany has agreed to let Yunkai continue slaving. In exchange, Meereen will be left in peace to be a slave-free city under the rule of Queen Dany and King Hizdhar. The agreement is particularly difficult for Dany for several reasons. The Yunkai have set up a slave market right outside Dany’s city. The Yunkai have brought their slaves into Meereen for the wedding celebrations with the agreement that their slaves will not be freed while inside the city. Dany’s revulsion to slavery and the people who practice it is so strong that her victory towards peace tastes a lot like defeat.

Dany scarce touched a bite. This is peace, she told herself. This is what I wanted, what I worked for, this is why I married Hizdahr. So why does it taste so much like defeat?

Furthermore, Dany has finally agreed to open the fighting pits and allow the fighting slaves to kill each other for sport and glory.

All of this is a necessary price for peace, Dany tells herself. Dany’s thoughts show me all of the other events that she has placed in the category of “Necessary Price:”

  • Dany thinks of her fair-haired handmaiden, Doreah, who loyally followed Dany into the red waste, against Dothraki counsel, where she withered and died. A necessary price.

“That way lies the red lands, Khaleesi. A grim place and terrible, the riders say.”

“The way the comet points is the way we must go,” Dany insisted . . . though in truth, it was the only way open to her. (ACOK Daenerys I)

  • Dany thinks of Quaro, Drogo’s bloodrider who once rescued her from Viserys’s cruelty and again from the winseller’s poison. When Quaro tried to stop the bloodmagic that ultimately killed Dany’s baby, he was killed for it. But Quaro’s life was a necessary price.

  • Dany thinks of Eroeh, the girl she may have been able to save from gang rape and butchery if she had taken a less volatile approach to changing the culture. A necessary price.

  • Dany thinks of Hazzea, the charred remains of a young girl whose burning by dragonfire never officially happened. A necessary price.

If Dany doesn’t categorize these events as unavoidable necessities, she can’t bear them.

Stoicism – submit without complaint to unavoidable necessity.

Each challenge was an opportunity to address a difficult truth. And each foregone opportunity increases the difficulty of the next challenge.

I want to take apart what it is, exactly, that is making these challenges more difficult. There seem to be two pressures at play whenever Dany needs to decide what to do.

  1. External pressure. Her environment and circumstances can pose physical threats to her life. Dany has a choice about what to do externally. For example, to marry Hizdhar or not to marry Hizdhar. If Dany doesn’t marry Hizdhar, she will be free to marry someone else later, but she may be conquered and killed by the enemies that surround her city.

  2. Internal pressure. Dany has a choice about what to do internally. She can address her nagging conscience or she can continue running from it. She can’t bear the pain of addressing her past mistakes. With the mistakes unaddressed, her way-of-being does not receive the updates necessary to prevent her from repeating those mistakes.

Repeated mistakes exacerbate the pressures from 1 which exacerbate the pressures from 2, creating a negative loop.

When pressures from 1 become too dangerous, Dany’s list of options narrows. First it narrows to a point where she no longer has the opportunity to address her past mistakes. She’s forced to commit further to her chosen path. If her options narrow too much then her last option remaining, in the face of death, is to go all Fire and Blood on her problems. Because survival is the fundamental imperative.

Ideally, Dany can maneuver through life in a way that she never encounters that imperative. But she has been fleeing from her past mistakes for so long and repeating them so much that, in her latest decisions, her options for dealing with external pressures are narrowed to those two. Either change your way or kill everyone in your way.

Better the butcher than the meat. All kings are butchers. Are queens so different? (ADWD Daenerys IV)

Daario suggests the latter. He wants Dany to round up all the Great Masters in one place and kill them. But Dany has come to learn that her understanding of slavery and how to change it is incomplete.

“My queen?” Daario stepped forward. “The riverside is full of Meereenese, begging leave to be allowed to sell themselves to this Qartheen. They are thicker than the flies.”

Dany was shocked. “They want to be slaves?”

“The ones who come are well spoken and gently born, sweet queen. Such slaves are prized. In the Free Cities they will be tutors, scribes, bed slaves, even healers and priests. They will sleep in soft beds, eat rich foods, and dwell in manses. Here they have lost all, and live in fear and squalor.” (ASOS Daenerys VI)

Knowing that, Dany’s compassionate nature will no longer allow her to kill everyone in her way like she did at Astapor, so she’s forced to take the only other route and change her way from passionate idealism to passionless stoicism. Since Dany was forced by her circumstances to change her way, rather than by voluntary self-examination, her past mistakes remain unaddressed.

By any political measure, Dany is doing splendidly ever since she began to suppress her passion and shift to stoicism. She won 90 days of peace for her city by making the marriage deal with Hizdhar. She set aside Daario and won permanent peace for the entire region by marrying Hizdhar. She has removed slavery from Meereen, the greatest city on the bay. Now she is positioned to prove the superiority of her anti-slavery values economically, politically, socially, and set the precedent for a slave-free Slaver’s Bay over the course of her lifetime. She has kept most of her dragons locked up where they can’t burn any more innocent people. She’s making all the proper sacrifices and they’re paying off magnificently.

Her stoicism proves to be incredibly effective. The problem with it is that, having not found the lessons in her past mistakes and incorporated them, her stoicism is an act. She can see that it’s effective but she can’t understand why doing the right thing feels so shitty. The costs of Dany’s decisions have always been incurred majorly on the external world. Now the costs of her decisions are incurred on her internally. She’s suppressing her passionate nature, her desire to run away with Daario, her desire to kill the slavers in her city, and her disgust for the fighting pits. Her spirit and ideals are dying as she compromises them in pieces, and it’s unbearable.

Even with the amount of pain Dany is feeling now, it’s worth considering the possibility that, given her past mistakes, this is the minimum amount of pain necessary in order for her to accomplish her goals to stay alive and to produce meaningful and lasting change in the world.

Dragons

Dany has just married Hizdhar and now she wants Quentyn to leave Meereen. She can’t marry him anymore. He isn’t safe around Daario and Hizdhar. And Dany isn’t attracted to him anyway. As Dany and Quentyn descend the pyramid to the dragon pit, Dany’s personality changes.

One of the elephants trumpeted at them from his stall. An answering roar from below made her flush with sudden heat. Prince Quentyn looked up in alarm. “The dragons know when she is near,” Ser Barristan told him.

Every child knows its mother, Dany thought. When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves … “They call to me. Come.” She took Prince Quentyn by the hand and led him to the pit where two of her dragons were confined.

The sound of her children fills her with heat. It might be motherly love, nostalgia, excitement, arousal, awe, or something else. Whatever it is, it’s an intense emotion.

“Drogon is hunting.” He did not need to hear the rest. “The white one is Viserion, the green is Rhaegal. I named them for my brothers.” Her voice echoed off the scorched stone walls. It sounded small—a girl’s voice, not the voice of a queen and conqueror, nor the glad voice of a new-made bride.

Her voice changes to that of a girl rather than a ruler. In combination with the heat, this might be a rare glimpse of Dany in her element. Being near her dragons seems to make her happy.

“They are … they are fearsome creatures.”

“They are dragons, Quentyn.” Dany stood on her toes and kissed him lightly, once on each cheek. “And so am I.”

Dany commonly gives platonic kisses when she is overcome with emotion, so I think she’s clearly in a very good mood. I think her mood is important to contextualize her thoughts when she leaves the dragon pit.

“I am a prince of Dorne, Your Grace. I will not run from slaves and sell swords.”

Then you truly are a fool, Prince Frog. Dany gave her wild children one last lingering look. She could hear the dragons screaming as she led the boy back to the door, and see the play of light against the bricks, reflections of their fires. If I look back, I am lost. (10) “Ser Barristan will have summoned a pair of sedan chairs to carry us back up to the banquet, but the climb can still be wearisome.” Behind them, the great iron doors closed with a resounding clang. “Tell me of this other Daenerys. I know less than I should of the history of my father’s kingdom. I never had a maester growing up.” Only a brother.

“It would be my pleasure, Your Grace,” said Quentyn. (ADWD Daenerys VIII)

The phrase If I look back I am lost in this scene shows me that Dany doesn’t want to leave her dragons. Her back is turned to them as they protest her leaving. It suggests that she feels regret or guilt about the decision to lock them up. Her stoic commitment to their imprisonment is painfully punctuated by the offensive clang of their prison.

Viserys is still in her thoughts and I sense some bitterness about her childhood in exile when compared to Quentyn. He was raised with all the advantages and stability of home and with a mentor figure who likely did not abuse Quentyn the way that Dany’s mentor abused her.

Dany is using the phrase to suppress her passionate way again. I think the passion Dany is suppressing here is her desire to stay with her dragons, perhaps the one place in Meereen where she feels free to be herself, temporarily relieved of the living nightmare of her circumstances internally and above ground.

And no matter how far the dragon flew each day, come nightfall some instinct drew him home to Dragonstone. His home, not mine. Her home was back in Meereen, with her husband and her lover. That was where she belonged, surely.

Keep walking. If I look back I am lost. (11)

Memories walked with her. Clouds seen from above. Horses small as ants thundering through the grass. A silver moon, almost close enough to touch. Rivers running bright and blue below, glimmering in the sun. Will I ever see such sights again? On Drogon’s back she felt whole. Up in the sky the woes of this world could not touch her. How could she abandon that? (ADWD Daenerys X)

In this final chapter, Dany’s last two uses of the phrase help her suppress a desire to abandon everything and live out the rest of her days in the wilderness with Drogon. Dany seems to envy Drogon his freedom to follow his natural instincts, to go wherever he wants to go whenever he wants to go there. It contrasts with Dany’s lack of freedom to act on her passions and to go where she has always wanted to go, but can’t remotely justify doing so. To go to Westeros now with her bay in shambles would be reprehensible by her own standards. It would be an unprecedented disregard for her responsibilities and an admission of absolute failure, three years in the making.

She turned back the way she’d come, to where Dragonstone rose above the grasslands like a clenched fist. It looks so close. I’ve been walking for hours, yet it still looks as if I could reach out and touch it. It was not too late to go back. There were fish in the spring-fed pool by Drogon’s cave. She had caught one her first day there, she might catch more. And there would be scraps, charred bones with bits of flesh still on them, the remnants of Drogon’s kills.

No, Dany told herself. If I look back I am lost. (12) She might live for years amongst the sunbaked rocks of Dragonstone, riding Drogon by day and gnawing at his leavings every evenfall as the great grass sea turned from gold to orange, but that was not the life she had been born to. So once again she turned her back upon the distant hill and closed her ears to the song of flight and freedom that the wind sang as it played amongst the hill’s stony ridges. The stream was trickling south by southeast, as near as she could tell. She followed it. Take me to the river, that is all I ask of you. Take me to the river, and I will do the rest.

The hours passed slowly. The stream bent this way and that, and Dany followed, beating time upon her leg with the whip, trying not to think about how far she had to go, or the pounding in her head, or her empty belly. Take one step. Take the next. Another step. Another. What else could she do? (ADWD Daenerys X)

At the end of the book, Dany’s notable lack of options is coupled with the “only forward” motif three times here in rapid succession, and several times in this chapter alone. She is visited quite literally by the ghosts of her past who compel her forward in the ways of the dragon, the Targaryen and passion. Everything that troubles her conscience resurfaces in her thoughts now.

The Red Waste

Dany could still see the trail of corpses she had left behind her crossing the Red Waste. It was not a sight she wished to see again.

Eroeh

Mago, his bloodrider, raped and murdered Eroeh, a girl Daenerys had once saved from him.

Viserys

If I’d had a dragon, I would have taught the world the meaning of our words. Viserys began to laugh, until his jaw fell away from his face, smoking, and blood and molten gold ran from his mouth.

Quaithe

“Remember who you are, Daenerys,” the stars whispered in a woman’s voice. “The dragons know. Do you?”

Jorah

“I am only a young girl.”

No. You are the blood of the dragon. The whispering was growing fainter, as if Ser Jorah were falling farther behind. Dragons plant no trees. Remember that. Remember who you are, what you were made to be. Remember your words.

“Fire and Blood,” Daenerys told the swaying grass.

Hazzea

“Drogon killed a little girl. Her name was … her name …” Dany could not recall the child’s name.

Bloodmagic, Drogo, Rhaego and Mirri

Her sun-and-stars had fallen from his horse, the maegi Mirri Maz Duur had murdered Rhaego in her womb, and Dany had smothered the empty shell of Khal Drogo with her own two hands.

I think we’re on the verge of witnessing one of two possible changes in Dany’s psychological path forward. Either she will dig out the lessons in her past mistakes, finally take responsibility for them, incorporate them and achieve moral intervention, or, faced with the unbearable pain of unattainable success, she will find another unexpected way to double down on passion and redefine success.

Outro

This thing was a challenge to focus. I was tempted at times to bake in threads about identity, Dothraki as wise fools, relativity of slavery, Dany’s cushions and Jorah’s shortcomings as a moral guide. Without the full picture, it comes across overcritical of Dany. But with any luck it came out focused enough to highlight what I wanted it to highlight, which is the way in which a person can bundle up all the mistakes of their past into a monster they call destiny. So I just want to close out by saying that I don’t think every bit of Dany’s woes are entirely her own fault. I think she’s an incredibly sympathetic character and that that is the point of her. Her mistakes, if they are mistakes, are all decisions I likely would have made in her circumstances too.

If you made it this far, thanks for reading and be sure to leave a comment. I’m sure I have misjudged some things, misused some words, and I absolutely want to know where, how, and what you think!


Acclaim

“This is good work. Well written too. Congrats”

“This really good analysis! Well done. I prefer analysis of characters like this – their psychological so to speak.”

“i am sorry, im busy at the moment so i didnt read the entire thing, just parts of it but it is really well done! This is also my favorite kind of analysis,”

“I’ll start off with saying I only read the first 20% of your post (it’s a lot), and that what I read was very well written and didn’t exaggerate or reach to far in any way.”

“So i had a giant reply written but my reddit crashed and did not save it. Suffice it to say I really enjoyed reading these posts. Thank you for taking the time to write them.”

“First of all major props for what seems to be a very high quality post: I’ve yet to read it all but insofar the first part hides a lot of very solid insight and I’ve got the feeling the trend will continue >_>”


“These are so well done. Please keep making vids. You don’t take the road most traveled. We need that.”

Another great video my friend.


Updated Oct 13, 2022 – Embedded video

Apologies for the Italics…

Sorry that all the book quotes are italicized. George RR Martin didn’t write the whole series in italics, but he did write a few select parts in italics. But you don’t get to know what those parts are! Because for whatever reason, wordpress has decided to take it upon themselves to place some idiot designer’s misplaced sense of aesthetic higher on the priority list than any writer’s intended meaning.