This is a list of “Under the Sea” comments from Patchface, as of the end of ADWD. There are twelve (12) total that I know of. They are numbered in the order they appear in the books from 1 to 12. But I’ve listed them in the order that I think will make the most sense with my commentary. Because I think the “Under the sea” prophecies from Patchface all together constitute a big puzzle game. So read from top to bottom as normal.

(1) BIRDS HAVE SCALES

The fool turned his patched and piebald head to watch Pylos climb the steep iron steps to the rookery. His bells rang with the motion. “Under the sea, the birds have scales for feathers,” he said, clang-a-langing. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” (ACOK Prologue)

I think this refers to dragons. “In the future, some of the flying animals will have scales instead of feathers.” This chapter comes not long after the birth of Dany’s dragons, so this line could predict the dragons coming to Westeros as well as the future relevance of dragons in the lives of Patchface and everyone in Westeros.

This prophecy teaches me the first leap in logic that I’m allowed to make. Patchface seems to be referring to dragons as birds. I was able to figure out that he’s referring to dragons because dragons have scales. But also because the thing that birds and dragons have in common is that they both fill the role of “flying animal.” So apparently in Patchface’s prophecy, it’s fair to call a dragon a bird. This role-based mode of interpretation may be useful again later in my journey through Patchface’s prophecies.

Of course, that’s assuming that my “dragons” interpretation is correct. It may be incorrect. But since it seems to work well for this prophecy, I should try to use what I’ve learned from it as I move forward. The degree to which the thing I’ve learned seems to work for future Patchface prophecies is the degree of confidence I can have that I’m on the right track. Likewise, when the thing I’ve learned doesn’t seem to work for future Patchface prophecies, the place where I learned it is the place I need to revisit and rethink.

(4) YOU FALL UP

Patchface sprawled half on top of him, motley fool’s face pressed close to his own. He had lost his tin helm with its antlers and bells. “Under the sea, you fall up,” he declared. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” Giggling, the fool rolled off, bounded to his feet, and did a little dance. (ACOK Prologue)

Cressen was climbing toward the high table where Stannis and company were sitting at the feast. Patchface fell on Cressen and they went down together. In the context of “Under the sea,” the phrase “you fall up” is pretty cool, because some things, such as a person, can float to the surface. I’m not highly confident about my interpretation of this prophecy, but I think the watery context is meant to be misleading, particularly because I gravitate to its coolness and that makes it challenging to throw away the context that activates the cool interpretation.

When I suppose that “Under the sea” means “In the future,” the watery context disappears. Then, when I look at “You fall up” outside of the watery context, I find other potential meanings. The word “you” can refer to “everyone in general,” which is what it seemed to mean in that initial floating interpretation. But the word “you” can also refer to Cressen specifically. And when I look at Patchface’s body language, I find him with his “face pressed close” to Cressen’s face. So that seems to validate the “you” = “Cressen” interpretation.

Now that I suppose that the prophecy is specific to Cressen, the potential meanings of the other words come into focus. “Fall” can mean to lose your balance and succumb to gravity, like Cressen just did. But “fall” can also mean “die.” And Cressen did die shortly after Patchface said this line.

But how did he die “up?” He died at the high table, which is elevated above the other tables. His death at the high table comes after a bit of drama regarding where Cressen aught to sit. He was seated at a lower bench beside Davos, and then he walked to the high table to attempt assassination of Melisandre.

(7) SMOKE RISES FLAMES BURN

Behind, Davos heard a faint clank and clatter of bells. “Under the sea, smoke rises in bubbles, and flames burn green and blue and black,” Patchface sang somewhere. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” (ACOK Davos I)

Using knowledge from HBO’s Game of Thrones, this line seems like an open and closed case. So move to the next prophecy if you don’t want GoT spoilers.

I think Patchface means “In the future, Viserion’s smoke rises in bubbles.” Because Viserion was killed and sunk under water. Then he was reanimated by the Others as a wight dragon, changing his flame from gold to blue. And that’s why the flames are colored green, blue and black instead of the green gold and black that Dany’s dragons have.

(8) OLD FISH EAT YOUNG FISH

At the top of the steps Davos heard a soft jingle of bells that could only herald Patchface. The princess’s fool was waiting outside the maester’s door for her like a faithful hound. Dough-soft and slump-shouldered, his broad face tattooed in a motley pattern of red and green squares, Patchface wore a helm made of a rack of deer antlers strapped to a tin bucket. A dozen bells hung from the tines and rang when he moved . . . which meant constantly, since the fool seldom stood still. He jingled and jangled his way everywhere he went; small wonder that Pylos had exiled him from Shireen’s lessons. “Under the sea the old fish eat the young fish,” the fool muttered at Davos. He bobbed his head, and his bells clanged and chimed and sang. “I know, I know, oh oh oh.”  (ASOS Davos V)

I don’t have any great ideas for what this means. But here’s what I’m thinking.

From what I gather by interpreting Patchface so far, he actually speaks quite plainly. It’s just that his words are drowned, or waterlogged. For example, “Under the sea” seems to mean “In the future.” That’s the most useful translation I’ve come across so far, because it works consistently. So using that as a model for how to interpret Patchface, there isn’t a complex logic relationship between his words and his meanings. His words are simply something related to the sea or water in general. For example, bubbles can occur in any body of water, not just a sea.

So my takeaway is that the way to translate Patchface is to not overthink his waterlogged words. They don’t necessarily need to have a coded meaning or require a fancy decoding schematic. Simply dry them out. Take the waterness out of it and see what remains. For example when I take the waterness out of “merwives” I get “wives.”

That’s why I think “fish” might simply mean “people” or possibly “smallfolk.” In that case, the prediction is just as dark as it first seemed. Some young smallfolk are gonna get eaten by some old smallfolk.

(12) MEN MARRY FISHES

“Under the sea, men marry fishes.” Patchface did a little dance step, jingling his bells. “They do, they do, they do.” (ADWD Jon XIII)

The fishes = smallfolk interpretation seems like it works pretty well here. Maybe Patchface is saying “In the future, men marry smallfolk.” Which almost makes sense, except that men already marry smallfolk. Smallfolk men marry smallfolk women. So this could reveal the meaning of “men.” In order for this to make the most sense, “men” has to mean “nobles.” Because noble men are the only men who don’t generally marry smallfolk.

So it’s a prediction that seems to indicate that Westeros will advance beyond this feudal way of life at some point in the future. They won’t need to do political marriages anymore if the civilization as a whole can manage to shed its belief that power resides in blood. More on that in Targaryen Madness.

(9) MERMEN FEAST

The royal ducklings fell in behind them as they made their way across the yard, marching to the music of the bells on the fool’s hat. “Under the sea the mermen feast on starfish soup, and all the serving men are crabs,” Patchface proclaimed as they went. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.”

Melisandre’s face darkened. “That creature is dangerous. Many a time I have glimpsed him in my flames. Sometimes there are skulls about him, and his lips are red with blood.” (ADWD Jon X)

“Mermen” can be dried out to give me “men.” And I gather from the MEN MARRY FISHES prophecy that “men” means “noble men.” So I can conclude that mermen = men = noble men. They are all the same thing.

Judging by MEN MARRY FISHES, non-noble men are included with non-noble women in the word “fish.” So for example, a description of a noble woman marrying a non-noble man would be “fish marry merwives” or “fish marry mermaids.” I think I’m getting the hang of this.

I think starfish are special people. Because “fish” means “smallfolk,” which are regular people, but “star” suggests specialness – perhaps rarity, ability or magic quality. When I consider that the starfish is soup, that makes me think of Jojen paste. Jojen was a special person with a rare magic ability called green sight and green dreams. And Jojen was seemingly turned into paste and fed to Bran. And Bran qualifies for “merman” because Bran is a noble and a male. So in conclusion, “the mermen feast on starfish soup” might translate to “Bran eats soup made out of Jojen the greenseer.”

Now for the crabs. “And all the serving men are crabs.” If a starfish plays the role of a greenseer or special person, then what kind of role does a person have to play in order to water-translate to a crab? Well, crab is the first sea creature in this puzzle that can travel on land and sea. He can go from one world to the other, so to speak. So maybe a crab is a person who plays that role of traveling where or how the other sea creatures can’t travel. Like weirwood visions or dreams or trees or time travel.

That makes me think of the children of the forest. The children are the ones who served Bran the Jojen paste. And it’s said that when a child of the forest dies his spirit goes into the weirwoods. So that’s like traveling between two worlds which could fill the role of the crab. So maybe the children of the forest are “all the serving men” who “are crabs.”

(5) FISH EAT US

Patchface was capering about as the maester made his slow way around the table to Davos Seaworth. “Here we eat fish,” the fool declared happily, waving a cod about like a scepter. “Under the sea, the fish eat us. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” (ACOK Prologue)

Using the “fish” = “smallfolk” interpretation, I think this means “In the future, the smallfolk eat the nobles.” It could be literal eating such as cannibalism if they’re hungry enough. But it could also be non-literal, using a definition of “eat” that means “to wear away or corrode.”

(3) IT SNOWS UP RAIN IS DRY

Shireen giggled. “I should like a gown of silver seaweed.”

“Under the sea, it snows up,” said the fool, “and the rain is dry as bone. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” (ACOK Prologue)

In a watery context, “it snows up” might refer to the fact that things float to the surface. And “rain is dry” might refer to bubbles, because bubbles are made of air and air is dry as opposed to the water around it, a perfect reversal of rain above the sea. But when I think about it outside of a watery context, I gain access to other interpretations.

As of writing this, I think this line refers to the Mother of Mountains erupting and spewing ash. Because ash looks like snow and the mountain will launch it upward I suppose. Then it will come down like rain, dry as bone. I hope to do a fuller explanation for this, but you can find more of my thinking on it in ACOK 0 Cressen.

(2) ALWAYS SUMMER MERWIVES WEAR NENNYMOANS

Patchface rang his bells. “It is always summer under the sea,” he intoned. “The merwives wear nennymoans in their hair and weave gowns of silver seaweed. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.”

Shireen giggled. “I should like a gown of silver seaweed.” (ACOK Prologue)

If I had to guess, I think the summer line probably means “In the future, it is always summer.” In other words, whatever problem is causing this world to plummet into horribly long winters will be solved, and Westeros will enjoy permanent summers going forward. Hmm I guess House Stark would need to find a new motto.

I gather from the MEN MARRY FISHES prophecy that “mermen” means “noble men.” So “merwives” should mean “noble wives.”

“Nennymoans” sounds like a bastardization of “anemone.” A sea anemone is a poisonous aquatic animal that looks like a flower. And flowers are normally what a girl wears in her hair. So I think this is referring to Sansa’s purple amethyst hairnet that was used to poison Joffrey. Sansa was the wife of Tyrion.

The “weave gowns of silver seaweed” refers to the dress Sansa was wearing, which was silvery satin.

the gown itself was ivory samite and cloth-of-silver, and lined with silvery satin. The points of the long dagged sleeves almost touched the ground when she lowered her arms. (ASOS Sansa III)

Sansa wore a gown of silvery satin trimmed in vair, with dagged sleeves that almost touched the floor, lined in soft purple felt. (ASOS Tyrion VIII)

I want to point out an overarching pattern I’m seeing in Patchface’s “Under the sea” prophecies. Mermen are noble men, merwives are noble wives, starfish are special people, fish are smallfolk, a sea anemone is a flower that a mermaid wears in her hair. Do you see the picture that is being painted? It’s very much like a children’s story — perhaps one entitled “Under the Sea.” The creatures of the sea are characterized in ways and associated with things on land that a child could recognize and understand.

(6) NO ONE WEARS HATS

“If you will speak such folly, Maester, you ought to wear your crown again.”

“Yes,” Lady Selyse agreed. “Patches’s helm. It suits you well, old man. Put it on again, I command you.”

“Under the sea, no one wears hats,” Patchface said. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” (ACOK Prologue)

Hmm this one is interesting. There are a lot of ways I could interpret the word hat. But Patchface seems to provide me with the interpretation already. No one said hat before Patchface said it. Selyse said helm and Melisandre said crown. So Patchface could be saying “In the future, no one wears helms or crowns.” It could indicate an end to the feudal way of doing things. It might also indicate an end to war, but that seems like it would be an unrealistic ending for any story. So another thing this line could reveal rather than an end to war is an advancement of the age. Maybe Westeros far in the future will have finally advanced to a new age in which helmets aren’t a commonly worn thing, perhaps because life is peaceful enough. And crowns aren’t worn because there may not be Kings.

(11) RIDE SEAHORSES MERMAIDS

Up spoke Ser Malegorn. “Lord Snow, who will lead this ranging?”

“Are you offering yourself, ser?”

“Do I look so foolish?”

Patchface jumped up. “I will lead it!” His bells rang merrily. “We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.”  (ADWD Jon XIII)

This is the first time Patchface has used “Under the waves” instead of “Under the sea.” The two phrases might mean the same thing because, as I noted in OLD FISH EAT YOUNG FISH, it seems like we’re supposed to dry out the words in order to see what remains. And whether I’m drying out “Under the sea” or “Under the waves,” what remains is the same: “Under the _water_.” So maybe they both mean “In the future.”

Still, I want to play with the idea that “Under the waves” isn’t perfectly synonymous with “Under the sea.” Maybe this small change in the words represents a small change in Patchface’s meaning. For example, maybe it still means “In the future,” but that these events are only part of a temporary visit to the future, perhaps through a vision or dream, and that the events can be undone, or that they don’t necessarily need to occur the same way or occur at all.

Another idea is that “waves” might suggest an unevenness, change, chaos, something temporal, something unsettled, something that is shifting, resolving, in flux. So maybe that could mean the events Patchface is describing are conditional. Or maybe it could mean the events are happening during a turbulent time. I like that one better. That seems to match with the nature of the events.

Now the events. Patchface’s words follow a discussion between Jon and Selyse. Jon and Selyse were arguing about whether or not Jon should make a ranging to Hardhome to rescue the wildlings there. Patchface’s response “I will lead it” is in answer to the question “Who will lead this ranging?” So maybe the events he predicted are related to the ranging.

I don’t think they necessarily have to be related to it, because Patchface’s shtick, on the surface, is that he shouts seemingly off-topic absurdities, but it’s the best place to start. (And the author’s schtick with Patchface seems to be that Patchface’s absurd comments are not really absurd at all.)

 “We will march into the sea and out again.”

This line comes before Patchface says “Under the waves,” so it might not be a prediction of the future. I’m not sure how to treat it because of that. But my instincts tell me that it either isn’t part of the prediction or it isn’t safe to treat it like part of the prediction. Its purpose may come into focus in retrospect, or it may offer some useful guidance at some point, so I’m not gonna throw it away. But I’m gonna put it aside for now.

“Under the waves, we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming.”

I already know from the MEN MARRY FISHES prophecy that “merwives” means “noble wives.” Because “mermen” means “noble men.” So that makes it easy to see that “mermaids” means “noble maids.”

This distinguishes them from merwives because a maid is an unmarried or virginal woman. And it distinguishes them from non-noble maids too.

“Seahorses” wet  makes sense in an interesting way. Because Jon sailed ships to Hardhome and ships are kind of like horses that can run on the sea — or seahorses.

When I look to Hardhome, I see a potentially cool interpretation of “seashells.”

Jon to Bowen: ““Cotter Pyke’s galleys sail past Hardhome from time to time. He tells me there is no shelter there but the caves. The screaming caves, his men call them. Mother Mole and those who followed her will perish there, of cold and starvation. Hundreds of them. Thousands.” (ADWD Jon VIII)

The screaming caves by the sea? That sounds kinda like blowing seashells to me!

The name that Cotter Pyke’s men have given the caves raises the question of: Who is doing the screaming? Are the caves screaming because the wind blows through them? Or are they screaming because the people inside the caves are screaming? If it’s the wind doing the screaming then it’s the wind doing the blowing, and then it doesn’t match the prophecy, because the “mermaids” (noble maids) are supposed to do the blowing, not the wind. If it’s the people doing the blowing then it might match the prophecy, because some of those people are certainly women, or maids. but I don’t know that any of them are noble per se. Maybe it’s fair to say that none of them are noble because the wildlings don’t have nobility. Or maybe it’s fair to say that all of them are noble because they’re freefolk.

Hardhome happened off screen, too, so if the resolution to “seashells” is “the screaming caves,” it’s a resolution I never got to see for myself, which makes it unsatisfying.

I’m starting to see this “seashells” = “the screaming caves” interpretation break down in multiple ways. I still think it’s cool, but I think it’s time to abandon it.

I think I should stay consistent with my strategy of drying out the words to find the meanings. “Seahorses” dried out gives me “horses.” A horse is very different from a ship, and leads me down different paths of thought.

Another way I could dry out the word “seahorse” is the way I did it with the word “crabs” in MERMEN FEAST. I can think about the role of a seahorse as compared to the roles of the other sea creatures — merpeople, fish, starfish, crabs — to figure out what makes the seahorse unique. And then ask: What kind of role does a person, animal or thing have to play in order to water-translate to a seahorse?

I don’t know much about seahorses, and there isn’t any seahorse characteristic that jumps out in my mind when I think about seahorses, except of course that they’re called horses. And I don’t think the author would overestimate the ability to which he can rely on the reader’s common knowledge about seahorses before his mystery becomes too technical and tedious to be cool. So when I dry out the word “seahorses” in this role-based way, I end up with “horses” again just like I did when I dried it out the other way. In conclusion, I’m settled on “seahorses” = “horses.”

Let’s put together what I have so far.

“Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming.”

In other words,

“In the future, we will ride horses, and noble maids will blow seashells to announce our coming.”

I daresay it’s beginning to sound like something that could reasonably happen. I’ll try to figure out the next part.

“Noble maids will blow seashells to announce our coming.”

When I dry out “seashells” I get “shells.”

What do I get when I dry out “seashells” the other way? What role do seashells play? Well, the prophecy seems to provide the answer to that. The reason the mermaids are blowing the seashells is to announce the coming of the people riding the horses. So the role of the seashells is to announce a coming. Maybe seashells are horns.

“Horns” was the first thing that came to mind when I read it. It makes a lot of sense in context. But I’ve seen other analysts go down the “horns” route to no avail, so I want to try a different route. I also wanted to lay out my thinking so that you can see the opportunities in it for other possibilities. Because even though “horns” is the interpretation that jumps out at me, it might not be correct. I should explore more possibilities than “seashells” = “horns” just to see what my other options are, so that I can weigh them against other interpretations. Additionally, I may not go too far to say that the plainness of “seashells” = “horns” indicates to my skeptical eye that it might be too easy of a solution, and that therefore it’s an opportunity for the mystery to punish me for taking something for granted.

So I dried out “seashells” and got “shells.” What else could “shells” mean? The prophecy gives me a hint. They aren’t just any kind of shells. They’re the kind of shells that you blow. What does blow mean? It could mean to blow air with your mouth, like with a horn. But another meaning of blow is to apply fire, like when a potter blows clay and a glassmaker blows glass.

Medieval glass wasn’t very good by today’s standards, but they do have glass, and they use it in expensive buildings like high end brothels and Septs. None of that glass seems particularly interesting, but there is one kind of glass in the story that grabs my attention. Dragonglass!

If you want to, take a moment to think about how “seashells” = “Dragonglass” could fit in the picture of Patchface’s prophecy.

Up spoke Ser Malegorn. “Lord Snow, who will lead this ranging?”

“Are you offering yourself, ser?”

“Do I look so foolish?”

Patchface jumped up. “I will lead it!” His bells rang merrily. “We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.”  (ADWD Jon XIII)

Glass candles are used to communicate across long distances, like a telephone. So dragonglass candles can be blown, and they can also be used to announce a coming.

If I were going to try to defend the entire Northern region with only two or three dragons, a bunch of glass candles might come in handy.

“Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming.”

Or in other words, “In the future, Patchface and company will ride horses, and noble maids will apply fire to dragonglass to make glass candles to announce our coming.”

That’s pretty cool. But something doesn’t make sense. Patchface and company are the ones riding the horses.  So why would noble maids need to announce the coming of Patchface and company? Maybe it’s to announce the arrival of Stannis’s royal party. But that doesn’t seem like an event worthy of a prophecy. So maybe it’s because, in the future, Patchface, Stannis and company aren’t good guys anymore.

“I will lead it! (…) Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming.”

Melisandre’s face darkened. “That creature is dangerous. Many a time I have glimpsed him in my flames. Sometimes there are skulls about him, and his lips are red with blood.” (ADWD Jon X)

Are you picking up what I’m putting down? I think Patchface and company might die and rise again as part of an army of wights that sweep through the North, with Patchface at the front, bells still jingling probably. The people may forge more dragonglass candles so that they can have fast-communication and coordinate a defense. And the people defending the castles — perhaps the noble women, perhaps Daenerys with her dragons — will do the forging (blowing) of glass candles and the communication (announcing) with them.

So the meaning of “seashells” or “shells” could be dragonglass. Both seashells and dragonglass perhaps share the role of “an ordinary yet special stone to be collected.” It matches nicely with the childlike perspective for which the “Under the sea” associations seem tailored.

Now I’ve found a meaning for the line “We will march into the sea and out again.” When Patchface sailed to Westeros, the ship was destroyed, all the passengers died, Patchface washed ashore three days later, somehow miraculously alive. I think the whole event suggests that Patchface died and was reanimated. So maybe what Patchface is saying with this line is that, like him, many of the people around him will also die and be reanimated.

Now I can see how Patchface’s prophecy relates to the context in which it was made. It was a question about Hardhome. “Who will lead this ranging?” But I learn later that Hardhome was overrun by the dead and many people didn’t make it out alive. So maybe some of those people from Hardhome will be part of the wight army that Patchface leads south of the Wall, on a more nefarious sort of “ranging.”

“I will lead it!”

It all seems kinda crazy to me, too. But it’s where the evidence led me, so I’ll stand by the interpretation for now.

(10) CROWS ARE WHITE AS SNOW

They found Her Grace sewing by the fire, whilst her fool danced about to music only he could hear, the cowbells on his antlers clanging. “The crow, the crow,” Patchface cried when he saw Jon. “Under the sea the crows are white as snow, I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” (ADWD Jon XI)

Wight as Snow.

Maybe Jon is mishearing “wight” as “white.” And the capitalization of “snow” would not be audible to Jon in this context either. Some crows (Night’s Watch) may be reanimated as wights.

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Feb 5, 2021: Updated. Minor fixes to paragraphing, phrasing, elaborated some points.